Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?

Prediction markets put the probability at 34%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August. Currently, markets are divided (34% YES, 66% NO). AI-generated summary TradingKey - The U.S.-Iran conflict continues to escalate, driving oil prices sharply higher.

What’s Happening

The probability that WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August stands at 34% YES versus 66% NO, reflecting a market that has priced in significant geopolitical risk but remains skeptical of sustained triple-digit territory. This pricing follows a volatile stretch in which WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August was first tested on Tuesday, March 17, 2026, when the benchmark rebounded sharply and closed above that level, according to 24/7 Wall St. That move coincided with a broader energy rally driven by escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, which had already pushed Brent crude past $95 per barrel in early July and briefly above $105 in late April before a pullback to $91 for WTI by late May [24/7 Wall St., Mar 17].

The core driver behind the current 34% probability is the unresolved status of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil flows. On Friday, July 3, 2026, Iran announced the closure of the strait to all vessels, a move that sent Brent and WTI futures both above $90 intraday, with WTI climbing over 2% to cross $92 while Brent rose 0.5% to exceed $95. JPMorgan’s Head of Global Commodities Strategy, Natasha Kaneva, noted in a weekly report that global visible crude inventories were drawing down faster than expected, adding supply-side pressure [TradingKey, Jul 03]. However, the market has since partially priced in a diplomatic resolution, as Asian equities rallied in late May on expectations of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal that would reopen the strait and cool prices [Cryptorank, May 26].

Looking ahead, the key swing factor for whether WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August is the trajectory of U.S. shale supply costs and demand destruction. Enverus Intelligence Research projects that the marginal cost of U.S. oil supply will rise from $70 per barrel today to as much as $95 per barrel by the mid-2030s, driven by depletion of core inventory and a shift to speculative drilling locations [OilPrice, Sep 25]. That structural cost floor suggests that even if geopolitical premiums fade, prices near $90–$95 could become a new baseline, as analysts at Energy News Beat have argued, while also warning that sustained prices above $95 risk triggering demand destruction that would self-correct the market [Energy News Beat, Apr 23]. The next catalyst will be any formal agreement on the strait or new inventory data confirming whether the drawdown continues into August.

Traded on Polymarket — $80K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($80K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 24c YES.