AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (4 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 12c |
78%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 12c |
78%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 2c |
90%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 7c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 7c, a deep out-of-the-money bet that signals conviction against a Xi visit by September 23. This smart-money entry suggests the wallet sees the 91c YES price as overextended and expects either a delay or non-occurrence, though the thin wallet sample limits the signal's strength.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde7b..4b | MM | NO | $1.0K | +32% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,040 on $1.0K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 91c | $658.9K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 7c | — | × missed |