As of September 18, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?” at 90% YES with $122K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 90% probability to: will xi jinping visit us by september 23?.
On this market: 4/5 models independently agree NO — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
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4 of 5 models estimate NO fair value above market (88–98c vs 10c). Gemini Flash leads with 95% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 93c — market prices it at 10c. 83-point gap supports NO.
Why One Model Is Uncertain: Claude Analysis at Nonec — not available tonight (Claude CLI session limit or nightly cap)
1 Active Wallets on This Market
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 7c, a contrarian bet against the 90c YES consensus that is now massively profitable. This smart-money-style entry signals that informed flow sees the true probability of a Xi visit by September 23 as far below the market's 90% pricing.
Wallet
Category
Side
Amount
P&L
0xde7b..4b
MM
NO
$1.2K
+57%
This Market
Entered at 7c → now 10c (+57%), $1.2K on NO
Activity · 1 event · Sep 18
DatePositionAmountTotal
Sep 18BUYNO7+$786$785
Realized—
Unrealized+$450
Total Profit+$450
Wallet Type
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1648) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
With YES at 90c, NO holders who entered at 7c are deeply in profit while every YES position is underwater, creating strong incentive for NO holders to realize gains. The 100% NO profitability and 0% YES profitability skew the book toward selling pressure on YES, implying the 90c level may lack genuine support.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0%in profit
NO positions
100%in profit
Polymarket: 90c YES — $122K Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 90c with $122K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 7c. Significant 83-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
What are the current odds for Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?
As of September 2026, Polymarket prices this at 90% YES with $122K in total volume.
Where can I bet on Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 7c YES. 4 models agree on direction.
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