AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 92c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 95c |
70%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 35c |
62%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 96c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 83c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet is exclusively positioned on YES at 92c, signaling concentrated smart-money confidence in a Xi Jinping US visit by September 24. No NO entries from this wallet suggest it sees no credible path to resolution against the visit occurring. This one-sided positioning reinforces the bullish direction and the 95c market price.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xeec5..fe | Retail | YES | $2.0K | +5% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$173 on $2.0K capital deployed (avg +8.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 95c | $385.3K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 83c | — | ✓ matched |