AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (3 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 72c |
55%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 42c |
61%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 85c |
80%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 78c |
72%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 75c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet entered YES exclusively at 39c, well below the current 70c, signaling early directional conviction on Yashar before the market's repricing. With no NO entries recorded, there is no smart-money counter-signal to challenge the bullish positioning, but a sample of one wallet is weak evidence and may reflect limited market depth rather than broad informed consensus. Net read: mild bullish tilt from an early, profitable YES buyer, not a strong smart-money endorsement.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x551e..e0 | MM | YES | $2.8K | +83% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,752 on $2.8K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 70c | $4.4M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 75c | — | × missed |