AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 12c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 96c, signaling conviction that Zelenskyy's removal by June 30 was always a tail-risk event rather than a tradeable thesis. Smart money treats this as a resolved question at 6c — no fresh YES accumulation, no NO defense needed, consistent with a market drifting toward expiry rather than reacting to new information.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcaab..dd | MM | NO | $2.5K | -1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$131 on $2.5K capital deployed (avg +5.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $460.6K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 12c | — | ✓ matched |