Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

As of November 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?” at 6% YES with $262K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes attends a court session at the Supreme Federal Court (STF) in Brasilia on September 2, 2026.

What’s Happening

Brazil Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes remains at the center of a widening corruption and rule-of-law controversy, with a prediction market asking whether he will leave the court pricing only a 6% chance of his exit. On October 27, 2026, reports emerged that the scandal-plagued judge — described as the target of a $25 million corruption probe — barred Senator Flávio Bolsonaro from leaving Brazil. The move followed Flávio Bolsonaro's loss in the presidential election to incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and it underscored how extensively de Moraes's docket now intersects with the Bolsonaro family's legal exposure. [Latintimes, Oct 27]

The passport restriction stems from an inquiry into Flávio Bolsonaro's alleged links to lawyer Willer Tomaz, accused of laundering more than $1 billion through a fraud scheme, according to a court document reviewed by The New York Times. The ruling became public a day after the election and was issued by de Moraes, who also served as lead justice in last year's trial of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro. Separately, on October 8, 2026, de Moraes ordered former congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro to begin serving a prison sentence and directed an arrest warrant to be issued; Eduardo Bolsonaro, who has lived in the United States since 2025, called the ruling "arbitrary, ill-timed and ineffectual." [NYT, Oct 26] [Courthouse News, Oct 8]

The cases have intensified scrutiny of de Moraes himself. On September 2, 2026, the president of Brazil's Supreme Court urged citizens to maintain trust in the institution as it battled a scandal involving a polarizing judge who has clashed with the right and with Elon Musk. The Washington Post editorial board argued on October 28 that Brazil's pursuit of the Bolsonaro family raises troubling rule-of-law questions, publishing an opinion titled "When judges become prosecutors." The question of whether Alexandre de Moraes will leave the Brazil Supreme Court remains open, with attention focused on the corruption probe and any institutional response. [WaPo, Oct 28]

Traded on Polymarket — $262K Volume