Other: AI verdicts on 31 Polymarket markets

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 5c. 7 smart wallets tracked.

95%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Tanker rerouting and elevated war-risk insurance keep shipping below pre-crisis levels, dimming a year-end recovery. All 6 tracked smart wallets hold NO positions across $10.4M in volume.

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

US-Cuba tensions keep military escalation in view, yet $5.2M in volume prices a direct strike as unlikely. All 3 tracked smart wallets hold NO, betting action won't materialize by year-end.

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Barcelona's teenage winger is dazzling but the Ballon d'Or has gone to a teenager only once (1958); voters favor Champions League-winning veterans. The lone tracked wallet sits NO, echoing the 85% skew.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 5c. 4 smart wallets tracked.

95%

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

GameStop's meme-driven M&A speculation lacks any confirmed talks with eBay, keeping the market firmly skeptical at $2.9M in volume. All 7 tracked smart wallets sit on NO, signaling no insider expectation of a deal.

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Coalition strain and the ongoing corruption trial keep his grip precarious heading into 2026. Four tracked smart wallets lean YES on $2.3M volume, betting on an early exit.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

Hamas leaders have publicly rejected disarmament as a ceasefire term, anchoring the market's skepticism. A single tracked wallet holds a contrarian YES against the 78% NO crowd — a thin signal on $1.6M volume.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31.

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?

Gold would need a sharp rally to clear $6,000 by year-end, a move traders view as a long shot on the current trajectory. The lone tracked smart wallet holds NO, echoing the 89% bearish lean.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES).

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026.

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31.

93%

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Prediction markets put the probability at 82%: Nothing Ever Happens: 2026.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).

No one announced as next James Bond?

Prediction markets put the probability at 21%: No one announced as next James Bond.

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Prediction markets put the probability at 42%: Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide.

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Saudi normalization talks stalled after Riyadh conditioned a deal on Israeli progress toward Palestinian statehood. One smart wallet holds a firm NO position, aligning with the 85% consensus despite $301K in volume.

Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 78%: Will STRC hit $100 by December 31.

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 28c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 6c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

OpenAI’s latest funding round reportedly values it near $1.6T, leaving a steep gap to $2.0T by year-end. Only one smart wallet is active, firmly positioned NO, while $113K in volume shows no bullish accumulation.

92%

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?

Trump’s inner circle has signaled continuity with Karoline Leavitt, and no credible reports suggest a shakeup. One smart wallet is firmly positioned NO, aligning with the 81% consensus despite $93K in two-sided trading.

87%