Live odds on 268 prediction markets — acquisitions, tech launches, cultural events. Every market tracked with real-time data from Polymarket.
Denmark and Greenland have flatly rejected Trump's repeated annexation push, leaving no path to a sovereignty transfer this year. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO across $10.6M in volume.
Iran-Oman talks on Hormuz shipping lanes are in final stages, yet markets give just 29% odds traffic normalizes by December 31.
The CLARITY Act cleared the House in July 2025 but still awaits Senate passage, keeping a 2026 signing uncertain.
Shipping insurers keep the corridor flagged high-risk as tanker traffic stays diverted, keeping a return to normal flow unlikely by month-end. All 8 tracked smart wallets hold NO, backed by $5.2M in volume.
Heightened US-Cuba rhetoric keeps a small floor under YES, but no actual military mobilization has surfaced. All three tracked smart wallets hold NO positions, aligning with the $5.1M volume's bearish tilt.
Kane's prolific goalscoring keeps him favored, though the award historically rewards Champions League and major-trophy campaigns. Only one tracked smart wallet is positioned, backing YES on $3.7M in volume.
Heightened U.S. rhetoric toward Cuba keeps a thin YES bid alive, but no troop movements or formal threats have materialized. All 5 tracked smart wallets hold NO across $3.3M in volume.
Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will GameStop acquire eBay. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).
Markets are split on this outcome at 48% YES. 3 smart wallets positioned NO — watch for convergence.
Houthi Red Sea attacks have rerouted shipping around Africa but never fully sealed the chokepoint. Both tracked wallets sit on NO across $2.1M in volume, betting on continued passage.
Barcelona teenager Yamal trades as a long shot, trailing established front-runners despite his breakout profile. The single tracked smart wallet holds NO, aligning with the $1.9M market's 84% lean against him.
Hamas says it reached a disarmament deal, but 70% odds favor NO, reflecting deep doubt it fully disarms by December 31.
Gold futures settled near $4,240 in late August, needing a ~41% surge to reach $6,000 by December, so markets price it at just 13%.
No film has ever grossed $900m domestically within a month of release, and only Force Awakens ever crossed $900m domestic at all.
WTI briefly topped $95 Thursday on U.S.-Iran military escalation, but holding above that level through month-end remains unlikely at 22%.
Status-quo bets dominate this "no major catastrophe" market, with YES climbing to 82% as 2026 stays quiet through August. Thin conviction signal: just one tracked wallet is positioned, also on YES.
A crowded top tier keeps Alcaraz short of clear favorite status at Flushing Meadows. Just one tracked wallet is positioned, siding NO across $648K volume — a thin signal leaning toward the field.
Marvel's Spider-Man reboot leads 2026's box-office slate as rival tentpoles trail early projections. All 3 tracked wallets hold YES on $614K volume — a firm consensus.
WTI crude trades far below $100 with only days left in August, making a spike to that level highly unlikely before month's end.
Domestic box office tracking has landed the film squarely in the 800m–900m band, keeping the outcome tight as the August 31 deadline nears. With $351K in volume, the lone smart wallet tracked is positioned YES.
STRC still sits below the $100 mark with a narrowing window before the September 30 deadline. Both tracked smart wallets hold NO on $372K volume, reinforcing the market's lean toward the target falling short.
Removal chatter around the FBI director persists, but NO holds a firm 3-to-1 edge. Only one tracked wallet leans YES — a thin contrarian signal against $356K in volume favoring the status quo.
Ongoing document releases have produced no new charges against named individuals, keeping YES pinned low. The single tracked smart wallet sits on NO, in line with the $333K volume skew.
Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30.
Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).
Prediction markets put the probability at 68%: Will STRC hit $100 by December 31.
Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: JD Vance out as VP by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).
No VEI-6 event since Pinatubo in 1991 keeps this pinned to a rare base rate. The single tracked wallet holds NO, with $128K volume backing the status quo.
Labor market resilience has held unemployment below the 5.0% mark, with little sign of sharp deterioration this year. Just one tracked wallet is positioned—NO—on $123K volume.
Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES).
Markets strongly favor this outcome at 88% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $115K in volume.
Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31.
Prediction markets put the probability at 70%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (70% YES).
Markets strongly favor this outcome at 93% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $92K in volume.
Prediction markets put the probability at 27%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (27% YES).
Markets are split on this outcome at 46% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $76K in volume.
Unemployment has hovered near 4% through 2026, leaving a wide gap to the 6.0% threshold. Thin $76K volume and the lone tracked smart wallet both sit firmly on NO.
Markets are split on this outcome at 56% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $73K in volume.
Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).
GOP strategist and CNN pundit Scott Jennings drew buzz as a contender, but no official nomination has surfaced. The lone tracked smart wallet sits on NO amid thin $59K volume.
Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).
Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026.
Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).