Live odds on 250 prediction markets — acquisitions, tech launches, cultural events. Every market tracked with real-time data from Polymarket.
Denmark and Greenland have flatly rejected Washington's repeated annexation overtures, leaving any 2026 handover near-impossible. Still, all 4 tracked smart wallets sit on YES against the 94% NO majority.
Prediction markets put the probability at 34%: US strike on Cuba by December 31. Currently, markets are divided (34% YES, 66% NO).
Despite $4.6M in volume pushing the price toward YES, shipping recovery remains contested. All 6 tracked smart wallets are positioned NO, diverging sharply from the 58% crowd consensus.
Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES).
GameStop made an unsolicited, non-binding bid for eBay in May, but at 12% odds a completed acquisition looks unlikely.
Ongoing corruption trial and coalition strains persist, but Netanyahu still holds his Knesset majority. All three tracked smart-money wallets sit on NO across $1.9M in volume.
Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).
LeBron-to-Cleveland reunion talk keeps the market near a coin flip on $1.2M in volume. Two tracked smart-money wallets lean YES, cutting against the slight NO edge in the current price.
LeBron remains tied to the Lakers, making a Heat move a long-shot despite recurring trade chatter. Just one tracked wallet leans YES against $1.1M in mostly-NO volume — thin, contrarian conviction.
No retirement signal from the 76-year-old justice with the July 15 deadline just days away. The single tracked smart wallet holds NO, aligned with $791K in volume leaning heavily against.
Six months into 2026 with no market-defining shock, the status-quo bet stays firm on $646K volume. The lone tracked wallet holds NO, a contrarian bet a major event still lands by year-end.
Nobel winners are announced in October, and stalled ceasefire diplomacy makes a wartime laureate unlikely despite Zelenskyy's nominations. Only one tracked wallet is positioned here, holding NO.
Speculation focuses on whether the 76-year-old justice steps down while Republicans hold the Senate, but he's signaled no intent. The lone tracked wallet sits NO, matching the 70% skew on $554K volume.
Alito, 76, has given no public signal of stepping down, and speculation stays muted heading into the term's end. The one tracked smart wallet holds NO, echoing the 83% consensus against a retirement.
Prediction markets put the probability at 66%: Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026. Currently, markets are divided (66% YES, 34% NO).
Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).
Persistent warmth as La Niña fades keeps 2026 tracking just behind record-setting 2024. Only one tracked wallet is positioned, holding NO, too thin to read as a real smart-money signal.
Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).
Prediction markets put the probability at 28%: Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027.
Trump is weighing scrapping the vague two-page Iran MOU amid renewed war tensions, but a formal withdrawal announcement by July 31 stays unlikely at 22%.
The SAVE Act passed the House but stalled in the Senate, where it needs 60 votes with no Democratic backing to advance. The lone tracked smart wallet holds NO, aligning with the market's $172K volume.
Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Major CEX insolvent in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).
Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).
Elevated insurance premiums and rerouting continue to hold tanker transits below normal amid unresolved regional tensions. All 3 smart wallets tracked on $110K volume are positioned NO against a full recovery.
Daily Hormuz transits have run below the 60-ship mark amid lingering regional tension, keeping that threshold out of reach so far. The single tracked smart wallet holds NO, echoing the $104K in volume.
Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).
OpenAI's $852B March valuation sits just 6% shy of $900B, and BofA's first $520M pre-IPO loan signals accelerating investor demand.
Prediction markets put the probability at 76%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (76% YES).
Prediction markets put the probability at 32%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31. Currently, markets are divided (32% YES, 68% NO).
Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES).
Tariff disputes and repeated missed deadlines have stalled India-U.S. negotiations. The lone tracked wallet holds NO, and thin $62K volume signals low market conviction.
Markets are split on this outcome at 48% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $58K in volume.
White House visits are typically reserved for title-winning teams, leaving the Seahawks a long shot without a Super Bowl run. The lone tracked wallet holds NO, aligning with the 70% bearish tilt on $57K volume.