Other: AI verdicts on 41 Polymarket markets

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

House passage in July 2025 stalled in the Senate with no floor vote scheduled, leaving 2026 enactment doubtful. Three tracked smart-money wallets took contrarian YES against the 82% NO crowd.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Tanker rerouting and elevated war-risk insurance keep shipping below pre-crisis levels, dimming a year-end recovery. All 6 tracked smart wallets hold NO positions across $10.4M in volume.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Denmark and Greenland have flatly rejected any US purchase despite Trump's repeated push, keeping YES in single digits. All 4 tracked smart wallets sit on NO across $10.6M in volume.

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

US-Cuba tensions keep military escalation in view, yet $5.2M in volume prices a direct strike as unlikely. All 3 tracked smart wallets hold NO, betting action won't materialize by year-end.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Absent any troop mobilization or formal military authorization, the market stays anchored to the status quo. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO, aligned with $3.3M in volume backing the low-conflict case.

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

GameStop's meme-driven M&A speculation lacks any confirmed talks with eBay, keeping the market firmly skeptical at $2.9M in volume. All 7 tracked smart wallets sit on NO, signaling no insider expectation of a deal.

92%

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 13c. 3 smart wallets tracked.

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Coalition strain and the ongoing corruption trial keep his grip precarious heading into 2026. Four tracked smart wallets lean YES on $2.3M volume, betting on an early exit.

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Barcelona's teenage winger is dazzling but the Ballon d'Or has gone to a teenager only once (1958); voters favor Champions League-winning veterans. The lone tracked wallet sits NO, echoing the 85% skew.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

Hamas leaders have publicly rejected disarmament as a ceasefire term, anchoring the market's skepticism. A single tracked wallet holds a contrarian YES against the 78% NO crowd — a thin signal on $1.6M volume.

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?

Gold would need a sharp rally to clear $6,000 by year-end, a move traders view as a long shot on the current trajectory. The lone tracked smart wallet holds NO, echoing the 89% bearish lean.

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Prediction markets put the probability at 82%: Nothing Ever Happens: 2026.

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31.

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 94%: Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Iran-Israel tensions and repeated tanker seizures have kept transit insurance rates elevated through September. One tracked wallet holds a firm NO position, aligning with the 92% market consensus despite $380K in total volume.

92%

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 90%: Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (90% YES).

Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 5c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

95%

Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?

STRC buybacks reduced Bitcoin per diluted share, and with only 34% odds, a $100 price by September 30 remains unlikely given halted BTC purchases.

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Prediction markets put the probability at 42%: Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide.

No one announced as next James Bond?

Prediction markets put the probability at 21%: No one announced as next James Bond.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Saudi normalization talks stalled after Riyadh conditioned a deal on Israeli progress toward Palestinian statehood. One smart wallet holds a firm NO position, aligning with the 85% consensus despite $301K in volume.

93%

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

93%

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES).

Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 78%: Will STRC hit $100 by December 31.

H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

JD Vance out as VP by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: JD Vance out as VP by December 31.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

92%

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

OpenAI's recent $40B funding round at a $300B valuation makes a 3.3x jump to $1T by year-end a steep ask. The sole tracked smart wallet is positioned NO, suggesting skepticism despite the 83% market price.

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

OpenAI’s latest funding round reportedly values it near $1.6T, leaving a steep gap to $2.0T by year-end. Only one smart wallet is active, firmly positioned NO, while $113K in volume shows no bullish accumulation.

Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?

Trump’s inner circle has signaled continuity with Karoline Leavitt, and no credible reports suggest a shakeup. One smart wallet is firmly positioned NO, aligning with the 81% consensus despite $93K in two-sided trading.

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 42%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31.

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 62%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31. Currently, markets are divided (62% YES, 38% NO).

Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026.

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027.

Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 11c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES).

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

93%