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Resolves: Dec 2026 3 months left Volume: $497K

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

NO
84c
YES
16c

As of August 31, 2026, Polymarket prices “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?” at 16% YES with $497K traded. No tracked smart-money wallet holds a position on this market yet.

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).

Down from 36% to 16% since 2026-07-19 (-20pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $497K Volume

Trade this market on Polymarket →
OddsShift analysis: up to 5 AI models + 166 tracked wallets on every market with smart-money data. Verdict track record published on the accuracy page.

No tracked smart-money positions on this market yet

OddsShift follows 166 on-chain Polymarket wallets, tiered daily by their record on resolved markets. When one of them takes a position here, this page gets the wallet table, model fair value and a verdict.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
As of September 2026, Polymarket prices this at 16% YES with $497K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.