Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
NO
82c
YES
18c
As of August 31, 2026, Polymarket prices “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?” at 18% YES with $1.8M traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).
On this market: 6/8 models independently agree NO — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis
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6 of 8 models estimate NO fair value below market (69–90c vs 82c). Gemini Flash leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 81c — market prices it at 82c. 1-point gap supports YES.
Why One Model Disagrees: Grok Contrarian dissents at 38c — Market at 18% and math models at 22% underprice tail risks of Houthi/Iran escalation or multi-ship attacks fully halting traffic in the r...
2 Active Wallets on This Market
Only two tracked wallets are active, with YES entries clustered at 17c and NO entries at 84c, indicating a small, split book rather than concentrated smart-money conviction. The slight YES-side profitability and dominant NO label signal that positioning is cautious and the market is leaning toward the strait remaining open, but low participation limits the signal's strength.
YES holders are sitting on modest gains, having entered at 17c against a current 18c mark, while NO buyers at 84c are underwater as the market holds below their entry. The thin 1c edge for YES offers little conviction, and the absence of profitable NO positions suggests the 18c price is being supported by early YES accumulation rather than fresh NO selling.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
100%in profit
NO positions
0%in profit
Polymarket: 18c YES — $1.8M Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 18c with $1.8M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 19c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
What are the current odds for Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 18% YES with $1.8M in total volume.
Where can I bet on Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 19c YES. 6 models agree on direction.
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