U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES). An Insurgency Threatens U.S.

What’s Happening

The probability that the U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027 currently stands at 14%, reflecting significant geopolitical and security headwinds. A primary obstacle is the escalating insurgency by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), which threatens a proposed billion-dollar mining deal between the Trump administration and Pakistan. According to a May 3, 2026 report from The New York Times, verified videos show the BLA conducted its most expansive attack in years, targeting military, police, and multiple civilian sites. Pakistani officials have publicly downplayed the attacks, but the violence directly jeopardizes the strategic mineral extraction partnership that was a key pillar for any new bilateral trade framework. [NYT, May 3]

The broader U.S. trade landscape is also in flux, with President Donald Trump simultaneously pressuring other major partners. On May 7, 2026, Trump set a two-month deadline for the European Union to implement a trade deal, threatening to raise tariffs to "much higher levels" if no agreement is reached, as reported by Politico. That same day, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled against Trump’s 10% global tariffs, finding they were not justified under a 1970s trade law, according to The Guardian. This legal setback complicates the administration's ability to use broad tariff threats as leverage, potentially forcing a more targeted, deal-by-deal approach—a dynamic that could either clear a path for or further delay negotiations on a specific agreement with Islamabad. [Politico, May 7] [Guardian, May 7]

Looking ahead, the timeline for any U.S. agreement with Pakistan remains uncertain, as the administration’s trade bandwidth is consumed by the EU standoff. Trump extended the EU deadline to July 4, 2026, after previously threatening immediate auto tariff hikes, Bloomberg reported on May 7. An EU negotiator stated there is "still some way to go" on that deal, per Automotive News. For Pakistan, the key variable is whether the BLA insurgency can be contained enough to revive the mining deal, which is the most tangible near-term incentive for the U.S. to agree to a new trade deal with "Pakistan." Without progress on security, the 14% probability is unlikely to rise, as Washington prioritizes deals with more stable partners. [Bloomberg, May 7] [Autonews, May 7]

Traded on Polymarket — $73K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($73K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 6c YES.