Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 11%: Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (11% YES). House passes war powers resolution directing Trump to end hostilities with Iran.

What’s Happening

The U.S. House of Representatives voted 215 to 208 on Wednesday, June 3, 2026, to pass a war powers resolution directing President Donald Trump to end hostilities with Iran, the clearest legislative rebuke yet of the administration's handling of the conflict. Four Republicans crossed the aisle to join Democrats in the Republican-led chamber, with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) defending Trump's decision to strike Iran ahead of the floor vote. The measure, brought under the 1973 War Powers Act, asserts congressional authority over military action absent a formal declaration of war. [NPR, Jun 3]

For congress passes iran war powers resolution to clear the June 30 deadline, the legislation must still advance through the Senate, where Democrats have repeatedly failed to muster the votes needed to force a floor vote on parallel war powers measures. Even a successful Senate passage would face an almost certain presidential veto, and override would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers — a threshold the House vote fell well short of, with the 215-208 tally roughly 75 votes below the override line. Senate Majority Leader procedural control and the lack of crossover Republican senators have left companion resolutions stalled in committee. [Al Jazeera, Jun 4]

The political stakes around congress passes iran war powers resolution have intensified amid economic fallout from the conflict, including oil-price volatility and tightening of shipping lanes that lawmakers from both parties have cited in floor remarks. The bipartisan House vote — the fourth such rebuke of a presidential military action under the War Powers Act in the last decade — is described by congressional aides as "mostly symbolic" given veto-proof math, though it establishes a record vote that election challengers can deploy ahead of November's midterms. The Senate is not currently scheduled to take up the measure before the June 30 window closes, with the chamber's calendar dominated by appropriations and a pending judicial confirmation. [NPR, Jun 3]

Traded on Polymarket — $56K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($56K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 11c YES.