Politics

Resolves: Jun 2026 34 days left Volume: $4.8M

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Starmer out by June 30, 2026?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 18% YES on Polymarket with $4.8M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Starmer out by June 30, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Starmer out by June 30, 2026?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 29c YES. 6 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

82c

YES

18c

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Starmer out by June 30, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).

Currently at 18%

Traded on Polymarket — $4.8M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $4.8M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 18c YES.

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On this market: 6/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 82c

6/6 models agree on NO, fair value 29c vs market 18c. BUY NO at 18c — models see 11c of upside.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

6 of 6 Models Agree: NO

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH PIN Model	NO	86c	—
MATH Compound Signal	NO	69c	—
AI Claude Analysis	NO	88c	72%
AI DeepSeek Quant	NO	86c	72%
AI Gemini Flash	NO	75c	65%
AI Kimi Macro	NO	22c	70%

6 of 6 models estimate NO fair value below market (22–88c vs 82c). Claude Analysis leads with 72% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 71c — market prices it at 82c. 11-point gap supports YES.

2 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money is decisively positioned against Starmer exiting by June 30, with 100% of tracked NO entries profitable and the dominant side firmly NO. The willingness to pay 66c for NO signals high conviction that Starmer survives the deadline, and the 18c market price now confirms that thesis has played out as the window narrows.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x4e25..a7	MM	NO	$2.3K	+8%
This Market Entered at 66c → now 82c (+8%), $2.3K on NO Activity · 2 events · Apr 16 → Apr 20 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 16BUYNO66+$4,559$4,558 Apr 20SELLNO64−$2,630$1,808 Realized−$72 Unrealized+$459 Total Profit+$387 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1694) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$1.5K	-74%
This Market Entered at 61c → now 18c (-74%), $1.5K on YES Activity · 2 events · May 12 → May 16 DatePositionAmountTotal May 12BUYYES70+$1,246$1,246 May 16BUYYES58+$3,750$4,776 Realized— Unrealized−$3,512 Total Profit−$3,512 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1920) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO holders entered at 66c and are now sitting on substantial unrealized profit with YES priced at just 18c, while the lone YES entry at 61c is deep underwater at -70%. The asymmetric P&L heavily favors the NO side, removing any natural price support from profitable YES holders who could defend the position.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 18c YES — $4.8M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 18c with $4.8M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 29c. Significant 11-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	18c	$4.8M
Our Model	29c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 18% YES with $4.8M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 29c YES. 6 models agree on direction.