How did 'ECB rate hike in 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Jun 11, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Jun 11, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $165.5K

ECB rate hike in 2026?

Resolved · JUN 11

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (5 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG

86c

100c

Stop Loss Target Final

4 of 5 Models Agreed: YES

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	68c	36%
DeepSeek Quant	???	68c	45%
Gemini Flash	YES	85c	70%
Kimi Macro	YES	90c	85%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 82c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xcaab..dd	MM	YES	$1.4K	+18%
This Market Entered at 78c → now 50c (+18%), $1.4K on YES Activity · 4 events · Mar 12 → May 15 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 12BUYYES52+$270$270 Mar 26BUYYES65+$12$350 Mar 26SELLYES74−$13$385 May 15BUYYES92+$920$1,398 Realized+$4 Unrealized+$241 Total Profit+$245 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1538) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$400 on $1.4K capital deployed (avg +28.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	94c	$165.5K	100c
AI Consensus	82c	—	✓ matched

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