Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). Neither film is expected to blink, which is surprising to box office watchers because there’s so much overlap in the target audience.

What’s Happening

The prediction market currently assigns just a 6% probability to *Avengers: Doomsday* becoming the top grossing movie of 2026, a figure that reflects intense competition in a record-setting theatrical calendar. Gower Street Analytics projected on Dec. 18, 2025 that the global box office will reach $35 billion in 2026, driven by a slate including *The Odyssey*, *Spider-Man*, and the Marvel sequel. That forecast, representing a 5% year-over-year increase, underscores the unusually crowded field that makes any single film’s dominance uncertain. The low probability for *Avengers: Doomsday* as the top grossing movie of 2026 stems partly from its direct clash with *Dune: Part Three*, which is scheduled for the same prime pre-Christmas release date, a collision that Variety reported on Mar. 18, 2026 could suppress both films’ earnings due to overlapping target audiences [Variety, Mar 18].

Box office analysts note that *Avengers: Doomsday* carries significant leverage as a sequel to *Endgame*, which grossed $2.79 billion globally in 2019, but the 2026 landscape is fundamentally different. The film moved twice from its original May 2025 date due to strikes, and its CinemaCon trailer on Apr. 16, 2026 showcased a massive crossover featuring Thor, Chris Evans’ Steve Rogers, and the X-Men, signaling Marvel’s intent to replicate past success. However, the same weekend as *Dune: Part Three* creates a zero-sum dynamic for premium screens and IMAX showings, which are critical for blockbuster grosses. Variety reported that rivals and exhibitors believe both films would earn more with distance from each other, yet neither studio is expected to move, leaving the market to price in a split of the holiday audience [Variety, Mar 18].

What matters next is the actual release performance in late December 2026, where *Avengers: Doomsday* must overcome not only *Dune: Part Three* but also the sustained run of *The Odyssey*, which opened earlier in the year. The 6% probability implies the market views *Doomsday* as a strong but not dominant contender, with the top grossing movie of 2026 title likely going to a film with a cleaner release window. Simu Liu called the project a “dream come true” in Nov. 2025, and Kevin Feige has confirmed the film will unite the Avengers, but enthusiasm alone does not translate to box office supremacy when facing a direct competitor. The final outcome will hinge on opening weekend numbers and whether the Marvel brand can reclaim its pre-2020 audience share, with the market currently betting against it [IGN India, Nov 18].

Traded on Polymarket — $844K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $844K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.