As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?” at 6% YES with $936K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). Written by James Fuller James is an experienced copywriter and editor covering prediction markets for Casino.org.
As of late August 2026, prediction market traders have assigned a **6% probability** to the proposition that "Avengers: Doomsday" will be the top grossing movie of 2026, a dramatic decline from the **12%** figure recorded in early May. The shift reflects the unprecedented box office performance of "Spider-Man: Brand New Day," which has held the No. 1 spot for five consecutive weekends and amassed **$2.3 billion** globally, making it the third-highest-grossing film of all time. The Spider-Man sequel now commands a **93%** probability in the same market, while "Avengers: Doomsday" trails behind other contenders including "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" at 5% and "Toy Story 5" at 3% [Action Network, May 05].
The market's skepticism toward "Avengers: Doomsday" stems from its **December 18, 2026** release date, which leaves only a two-week window to accumulate grosses before the calendar year ends. By contrast, "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" launched in July and has already surpassed the $2 billion threshold, a milestone that typically takes months for even the most successful blockbusters. Industry analysts note that the Marvel ensemble film, which features Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom and adapts the "Time Runs Out" comic storyline, faces the additional challenge of competing against "Dune: Part Three" in the same holiday corridor. The Collider analysis from August 20 identified only four 2026 releases with realistic billion-dollar potential, with "Avengers: Doomsday" listed as a borderline case dependent on critical reception and international market performance [Collider, Aug 20].
The market's current pricing implies a **94% chance** that "Avengers: Doomsday" will not be the top grossing movie of 2026, a stark contrast to the franchise's historical dominance. Marvel's previous Avengers installments have each held the annual box office crown, but the 2026 landscape has fundamentally changed. The theatrical calendar shows "The Mandalorian and Grogu" opening May 22, "Toy Story 5" on June 19, and "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" already in wide release, creating a crowded field that has pushed total 2026 box office receipts to record levels. With "Spider-Man" still drawing audiences in September and the holiday slate yet to unfold, traders will watch early tracking numbers for "Avengers: Doomsday" when marketing intensifies in October, but the current probability reflects the steep climb required to overcome a **$2.3 billion** head start [USA Today, Sep 03].
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moTracked wallets are positioned YES, but 3/5 models estimate NO. Wallets and models disagree — no entry.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 70c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 94c | 88% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 28c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 92c | 90% |
3 of 5 models estimate NO fair value below market (70–94c vs 94c). Gemini Flash leads with 90% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 85c — market prices it at 94c. 9-point gap supports YES.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 7c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $1.1K | -24% |
YES wallets entered between 7c. At current price 6c, none of the NO holders are profitable vs none of the YES holders are profitable. Both sides have similar profitability — no structural edge.
Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $936K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 15c. Significant 9-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $936K |
| Our Model | 15c | — |