Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES). The Devil Wears Prada 2's Box Office Shows How Far Superhero Movies Have Fallen.

What’s Happening

As of late May 2026, the prediction market for Avengers: Doomsday being the top grossing movie of 2026 sits at just 18% YES, reflecting a challenging landscape for superhero blockbusters. This low probability comes amid a summer season already dominated by non-superhero titles, most notably The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, which has amassed $964.1 million globally and is on track to become the first film of the year to cross $1 billion at the box office. The animated feature's sustained performance, combined with the strong debut of Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu—which cleared an estimated $90 million over the four-day Memorial Day weekend—has set a high bar for any contender aiming for the year's top spot. [Yahoo, May 17] [Rogersmovienation, May 23]

The market's skepticism toward Avengers: Doomsday top grossing movie of 2026 status is further underscored by recent box office trends for superhero films. A Yahoo analysis of The Devil Wears Prada 2's performance highlighted how far the genre has fallen, noting that even major Marvel entries like The Fantastic Four: First Steps—starring Pedro Pascal as Reed Richards—are facing an uphill battle to recapture pre-pandemic audience enthusiasm. The Polygon list of the 10 most anticipated movies of summer 2026 includes several superhero titles, but also features a diverse mix of horror and quieter dramas, suggesting that audience attention is no longer concentrated on caped crusaders alone. This fragmentation makes it increasingly difficult for any single superhero film to dominate the annual box office. [Yahoo, May 19] [Polygon, May 22]

Looking ahead, the Avengers: Doomsday film—expected to be a major Marvel Studios release—will need to overcome significant headwinds to claim the title of Avengers: Doomsday top grossing movie of 2026. With The Super Mario Galaxy Movie already nearing the billion-dollar mark and The Mandalorian and Grogu proving that Star Wars remains a potent box office force, the competition is fierce. The film's release date and marketing campaign will be critical, as will the broader reception to Marvel's Phase 6 slate. For now, the market assigns an 82% NO probability, indicating that analysts and traders see the current box office leaders as having too strong a lead for any single upcoming release to overcome. [WDW News Today, May 19]

Traded on Polymarket — $327K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 16c YES with $327K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.