Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES). ‘X-Men ‘97’ Just Set A Marvel Rotten Tomatoes Score Record.
Marvel's Avengers: Doomsday, which pits the Avengers and allied superhero teams against Doctor Doom, remains one of the most anticipated releases of the year, though details continue to leak ahead of its debut. On July 7, 2026, the Unibricks account revealed that a tie-in LEGO set titled "Sentinel Battle" will feature a replica of a Sentinel, the giant mutant-hunting robots Doom deploys against the heroes, fueling speculation about the film's roster and plot. Whether Avengers: Doomsday ends 2026 as the top grossing movie of the year depends heavily on both its reception and the strength of a crowded release calendar. [Newsweek, Jul 07]
The theatrical backdrop is unusually competitive. The Australian box office posted $100 million for three consecutive months for the first time ever, with admissions up 16% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, and analysts flagged a strong second half. Among the major releases tipped for record-breaking runs are the live-action "Moana," Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey," and "Spider-Man: Brand New Day," each a direct rival for any single film's claim to being the top grossing movie of 2026. That field of tentpoles raises the bar Avengers: Doomsday would need to clear to finish first. [Variety Australia, Jul 02]
Marvel's broader brand momentum is mixed. "X-Men '97" Season 2 premiered this week with a three-episode launch that scored 100% on Rotten Tomatoes from over two dozen critics, setting a brand record and following Season 1's 99%. On the film side, results have been uneven: "Thunderbolts," directed by Jake Schreier, was well-received critically but underperformed commercially, and Schreier has since been tapped for the upcoming MCU X-Men movie. That gap between acclaim and box office underscores the uncertainty over whether Avengers: Doomsday can convert anticipation into the top grossing movie of the year. [Forbes, Jul 03]
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