AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 28c |
44%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
75%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 10c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Single tracked wallet positioned NO at 85c, a high-conviction late entry signaling belief that custody by June 30 is structurally implausible. The absence of any YES smart-money entry reinforces the read: this is treated as a near-tail event, not a live catalyst. Directional signal is unambiguous NO, though single-wallet conviction caps confidence.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $1.7K | +10% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$281 on $1.7K capital deployed (avg +17.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $492.2K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |