AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 12c |
76%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 32c |
36%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 12c |
70%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 18c |
72%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 82c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 31c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is nominally positioned NO (dominant side), but the profitability split tells the real story: the only wallets making money are the cheap YES entries at 9c-11c, suggesting an under-priced tail bet on a Fed hike is quietly paying off. NO entries clustered at 84c-91c reflect a consensus 'no hike' thesis that is now bleeding, hinting the dominant side is complacent rather than sharp-conviction directional.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x2783..21 | Smart | NO | $3.4K | -9% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $4.7K | -12% | |
| 0xd039..32 | MM | NO | $2.9K | -6% | |
| 0x24c8..e1 | MM | YES | $2.7K | +48% | |
| 0xa4b3..b8 | Retail | YES | $1.8K | +48% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,740 on $15.5K capital deployed (avg -17.6%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 21c | $782.9K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 31c | — | ✓ matched |