AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 46c |
8%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 35c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 24c |
72%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 52c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 32c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money is positioned exclusively against Mexico winning, entering NO right at the 50/50 line and now validated by the drift below parity. The 52c entry signals the wallet viewed this as a coin-flip edge rather than high-conviction fade, but the lack of any YES tracking reinforces a directional lean toward NO resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x204f..14 +507% | Smart | NO | $6.5K | +1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$6,511 on $6.5K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 48c | $12.4M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 32c | — | × missed |