AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 61c |
22%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 68c |
35%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 32c |
68%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 24c |
68%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 37c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioning is thin and contrarian: one wallet faded Portugal at 24c, betting against the favorite, and the market has moved decisively against them. With no YES-side smart money tracked and the sole NO entry now -52c underwater, this is a low-conviction signal — the tracked flow disagrees with price but lacks the size or corroboration to imply directional alpha.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x204f..14 +79% | MM | NO | $1.8K | -1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$5,619 on $1.8K capital deployed (avg +316.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 76c | $14.4M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 37c | — | ✓ matched |