Prediction markets put the probability at 34%: Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06. Currently, markets are divided (34% YES, 66% NO). G1 Belgium vs I3 Senegal.
Belgium advanced to the round of 16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup after a 1-0 victory over Senegal on July 1, 2026, sealed by a controversial late penalty converted by Youri Tielemans at Seattle Stadium. The result, confirmed only after a VAR review of the spot-kick award, spared Belgium a difficult exit against a Senegal side that had beaten them by five goals in a previous meeting. Belgium entered the knockout stage having posted a mixed group campaign that included a 5-0 win over Tunisia and a 2-0 result against Croatia, alongside draws and a narrow loss. The question of whether Belgium win on -06 now hinges on their round-of-16 fixture. [ESPN, Jul 01]
Belgium's next opponent is the United States, who reached the round of 16 by defeating Bosnia-Herzegovina in their round-of-32 match, a game highlighted by a free kick from Malik Tillman. The two sides are scheduled to meet on Monday, July 6, 2026, with a quarterfinal place at stake. Opening odds from FanDuel and DraftKings framed the fixture as a near toss-up, underscoring how tight the matchup is expected to be. Whether Belgium win on -06 is complicated by squad availability, as the tie carries added significance for both nations given their prior World Cup history. [NYT, Jul 02]
A key factor heading into the match is the red card shown to United States forward Folarin Balogun, which rules him out of the round-of-16 tie and forces changes to the American attack. Tillman has publicly addressed how the U.S. intends to respond to Balogun's absence against Belgium. Belgium averaged 2.0 goals per game across recent fixtures with an expected goals figure of 1.9, statistics that will be tested against a U.S. side reshaping its front line. Whether Belgium win on -06 will be determined at kickoff on July 6, with the winner advancing to the quarterfinals. [FOX Sports, Jul 02]
Polymarket prices this at 34c YES with $387K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.
Unlock PRO — $29/moOddsShift runs mathematical + AI models and tracks 166 smart money wallets. Get BUY/SELL verdicts, entry targets, wallet positions, and P&L data.
Explore Market Radar →These Other markets have full AI verdicts, smart money tracking, and 5-model analysis: