IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES). 21 June 2025: The United States carries out strikes against nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

What’s Happening

The probability that the IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31 stands at just 16%, reflecting the stark reality that all remaining IAEA inspectors departed Iran on July 4, 2025, following the U.S. strikes on June 21 that targeted Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan with bunker-busting munitions. Since that departure, the agency has confirmed it has been denied access to these enrichment facilities, with visits confined solely to the Bushehr power plant. A confidential IAEA report from early September showed Iran’s stock of 60% enriched uranium reached 440.9 kilograms before the June 13 Israeli attack, and the agency acknowledged it “lost continuity of knowledge” over inventories during the hostilities. [Iran Watch, Oct 21]

The core question of whether the IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31 hinges on a diplomatic standoff that has hardened since September. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated on September 8 that Iran’s domestic law restricting agency work “cannot bind” the watchdog, but Tehran has maintained its refusal to grant access to the bombed sites. Reuters reported on November 10 that the IAEA has carried out about a dozen inspections in Iran since June, but none at Fordow, Natanz, or Isfahan — a pattern that makes an October 31 visit highly unlikely. The agency’s last confirmed access to those facilities was before the June strikes, and Iran has not signaled any willingness to reverse its position, despite international pressure. [Reuters, Nov 10]

The structural factor determining resolution is Iran’s legal and political posture, which has remained unchanged since the June 21 strikes. Tehran’s law restricting IAEA access, passed in late 2020, remains in force, and the foreign ministry has not issued any invitation for inspections at the three damaged sites. Even if a visit were announced in the final days of October, the agency would need to negotiate security protocols, travel logistics, and verification procedures — a process that typically takes weeks, not days. With no diplomatic breakthrough reported between Tehran and Vienna, and the IAEA’s own reporting confirming zero access to Fordow, Natanz, or Isfahan since July, the 16% probability reflects the absence of any credible pathway to an October 31 inspection. [Iran International, Sep 08]

Traded on Polymarket — $77K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($77K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 16c YES.