Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 40%: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31. Currently, markets are divided (40% YES, 60% NO). Iran will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons, official confirms ahead of deal signing.

What’s Happening

A senior Iranian official told Reuters on June 14, 2026 that under a final draft memorandum of understanding with the United States, Tehran agrees it will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons, with a final deal to be discussed in the 60 days following mutual agreement. The draft reportedly calls for the US to waive all oil sanctions on Iran, lift its blockade on Iranian ports, and release frozen assets, while Iran would immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. The framework forms the diplomatic backdrop against which the question of whether iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31 is being evaluated by markets and Western capitals. [Reuters, Jun 14]

A sharp gap remains between the parties' public positions. Tehran's official IRNA news agency stated on June 12 that stripping Iran of its enriched material was "not even on the table," and Iranian officials insist on retaining the right to enrich uranium domestically. The White House, by contrast, outlined five conditions the same day: Iran must destroy its highly enriched uranium, dismantle its nuclear program, keep the Strait of Hormuz open, and cease funding groups including Hezbollah, with economic relief tied to verified steps. Israeli officials say President Donald Trump assured them any accord would remove Iran's enriched stockpile, a claim Tehran disputes. [Jerusalem Post, Jun 14]

The New York Times, citing US officials, reported on June 9 that talks mediated by Pakistan are converging on four issues, including a halt on Iranian enrichment expected to remain in effect for 15 years, with Iran diluting rather than handing over its stockpile. Analysts caution that "halt" and "end" carry distinct legal weight, and that dilution arrangements historically permit residual low-enriched capacity. Whether iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31 ultimately depends on the staging language in the final MOU — specifically whether enrichment cessation is a precondition for sanctions relief or a milestone within the 60-day follow-on negotiation window. The structural determinant remains the sequencing of dismantlement versus economic relief. [Times of Israel, Jun 9]

Traded on Polymarket — $70K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($70K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 40c YES.