AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 37c |
26%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 20c |
62%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 20c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 17c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is positioned unambiguously short the closure: the lone tracked wallet built its NO stake near 56c and has ridden the price down to 28c, signaling conviction that full Iranian airspace stays open through August 31. With zero tracked YES exposure, the positioning points directional NO — a bet that headline escalation risk is overpriced relative to an actual total-closure outcome.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $13.5K | +41% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$9,201 on $13.5K capital deployed (avg +68.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $1.5M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 17c | — | ✓ matched |