AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Both tracked wallets are positioned NO, having faded the airspace-closure thesis from as high as 76c down to the current 7c — a clean, unanimous smart-money read. Their entries signal strong conviction that Iran does not fully close its airspace by July 31, and the absence of any tracked YES buyer reinforces the directional lean toward NO.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $3.5K | +58% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $1.7K | +10% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$2,992 on $5.2K capital deployed (avg +57.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $2.3M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |