As of September 10, 2026, Polymarket prices “Iran nuclear test before 2027?” at 5% YES with $258K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: iran nuclear test before 2027?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 10c vs market 5c. BUY NO at 5c — models see 5c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 96c | 88% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 94c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 90c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 94c | 78% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–98c vs 95c). Claude Analysis leads with 88% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 90c — market prices it at 95c. 5-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 96c, positioning as a late-stage favorite with minimal upside but high confidence in the no-test outcome. This smart-money signal reinforces the dominant NO side and suggests informed conviction that an Iranian nuclear test before 2027 is unlikely, though the thin 4c reward caps any meaningful edge.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | Retail | NO | $1.9K | -1% |
With YES at 5c, neither side shows any position in profit at current marks, indicating the market has moved against recent entries on both sides. The absence of profitable YES holders at a 5c price suggests early YES buyers are deeply underwater, while NO buyers at 96c have almost no margin for gain and face asymmetric downside risk. This configuration implies weak price support for YES and a market consensus firmly anchored toward NO.
Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $258K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 10c. 5-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $258K |
| Our Model | 10c | — |