Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES). President Donald Trump on Thursday announced that the Board of Peace reached what he called a "historic" agreement for the "complete.
President Donald Trump announced on Thursday, July 31, 2026 that the Board of Peace reached a "historic" agreement with Hamas for the group's complete disarmament, a plan that also stipulates a phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. The full text of the deal, published the same day, aims "at ending the cycle of destruction" and launching a credible path to Palestinian statehood. However, the question of whether Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7 remains highly uncertain, as Israeli officials have not formally endorsed the framework and have instead signaled significant reservations about its security provisions. [Google News, Fri Jul 31]
By Monday, August 3, 2026, the diplomatic picture had deteriorated sharply. Israel conveyed formal "concerns" to the United States regarding the plan, and separate reports indicate that Israeli forces escalated deadly attacks on Gaza while pushing hardline demands that threaten the US-backed roadmap. The relationship between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears strained, with the two leaders at odds over the broader war against Iran, complicating any swift endorsement. The 12% probability that Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7 reflects the widening gap between Washington's announced framework and Jerusalem's stated security red lines, including demands for long-term control over key corridors and a rejection of any timeline for full withdrawal. [Google News, Mon Aug 03]
The structural factor determining whether Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7 hinges on whether Netanyahu's coalition can accept a deal that Hamas has already publicly embraced, without triggering a domestic political collapse. Hardline ministers have publicly rejected the plan, and the escalation of attacks on Gaza suggests a deliberate effort to render the ceasefire terms moot before any formal vote. Analysts note that while Trump has leverage over Israel through military aid and diplomatic cover, his simultaneous conflict with Netanyahu over Iran reduces the pressure he can effectively apply. With the deadline just days away, the absence of any official Israeli statement of acceptance, combined with active military escalation, points toward a continued stalemate unless a last-minute summit produces a breakthrough. [Google News, Mon Aug 03]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($65K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 12c YES.
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