US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Q: What are the current odds for 'US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?'?

As of July 2026, prediction markets price this at 10% YES on Polymarket with $2.0M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?'?

OddsShift tracks 4 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

90c

YES

10c

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).

Currently at 10%

Traded on Polymarket — $2.0M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $2.0M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 10c YES.

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Smart money signal: 4 tracked wallets positioned NO. Backed by $2.0M in trading volume.

STRONG OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 91c

Smart money entered NO at 73c–88c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

4 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 4 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 4 market makers are providing $40K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 73c–88c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x0c0e..4e	MM	NO	$14.8K	+9%
This Market Entered at 80c → now 90c (+9%), $14.8K on NO Activity · 4 events · May 30 → Jun 20 DatePositionAmountTotal May 30BUYNO79+$9,778$9,778 Jun 01BUYNO80+$7,536$17,438 Jun 05BUYNO82+$8,572$26,445 Jun 20SELLNO84−$13,334$13,773 Realized+$601 Unrealized+$1,677 Total Profit+$2,278 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1336) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x162f..8d	MM	NO	$13.1K	+3%
This Market Entered at 88c → now 90c (+3%), $13.1K on NO Activity · 1 event · Jul 02 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 02BUYNO88+$12,771$12,771 Realized— Unrealized+$363 Total Profit+$363 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1084) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc021..a8 ★	MM	NO	$8.6K	+18%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 73c → now 90c (+18%), $8.6K on NO Activity · 18 events · Apr 19 → Jun 12 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 19BUYNO70+$17$17 Apr 20BUYNO73+$876$893 Apr 21BUYNO70+$814$1,671 Apr 25BUYNO72+$3,459$5,177 May 01BUYNO74+$1,480$6,801 May 07BUYNO75+$1,504$8,368 May 08SELLNO75−$1,483$6,920 May 11BUYNO74+$296$7,124 May 12BUYNO74+$740$7,864 May 15BUYNO74+$2,960$10,824 May 20BUYNO72+$720$11,251 May 23BUYNO75+$193$11,913 May 24BUYNO75+$228$12,141 May 27SELLNO78−$3,120$9,507 Jun 02SELLNO82−$1,415$8,579 Jun 08BUYNO80+$579$8,949 Jun 09SELLNO82−$209$8,964 Jun 12SELLNO84−$1,240$7,943 Realized+$564 Unrealized+$1,617 Total Profit+$2,180 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1142) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$3.1K	+21%
This Market Entered at 75c → now 90c (+21%), $3.1K on NO Activity · 2 events · May 10 → May 23 DatePositionAmountTotal May 10BUYNO74+$714$714 May 23BUYNO75+$1,807$2,533 Realized— Unrealized+$536 Total Profit+$536 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (985) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 73c–88c. At current price 10c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 10c YES — $2.0M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 10c with $2.0M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 10c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	10c	$2.0M
Our Model	10c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

As of July 2026, Polymarket prices this at 10% YES with $2.0M in total volume.

Where can I bet on US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

OddsShift tracks 4 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.