As of October 12, 2026, Polymarket prices “US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?” at 6% YES with $2.4M traded. 4 tracked wallets hold a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 6% probability to: us obtains iranian enriched uranium by december 31?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/8 models agree on NO, fair value 9c vs market 6c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 6c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 97c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 96c | 82% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 55% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 92c | 88% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 95c | 78% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
7 of 8 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–98c vs 94c). Gemini Flash leads with 88% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 91c — market prices it at 94c. 3-point gap supports YES.
All four tracked wallets sit on the NO side, entering at 73c-95c, signaling conviction that the US will not obtain Iranian enriched uranium by December 31. Their entries imply the market has already priced out this scenario, with smart money treating sub-10c YES as a longshot rather than a value play. Absent fresh YES accumulation, directional bias remains firmly down.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc021..a8 ★ | Smart | NO | $8.9K | +21% | |
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $15.5K | +11% | |
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $13.7K | +7% | |
| 0x2e0b..70 | MM | NO | $9.5K | 0% |
With YES at 6c, every YES position is underwater (0% in profit), while 75% of NO entries taken between 73c and 95c are profitable. The profitable NO cohort has strong incentive to hold or add, reinforcing the 6c floor as a ceiling rather than a launchpad. Any YES bounce faces immediate sell pressure from NO holders protecting gains.
Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $2.4M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 9c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $2.4M |
| Our Model | 9c | — |