As of November 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?” at 6% YES with $2.6M traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Polymarket traders assign only a 6% chance to the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by December 31, with the contract drawing about $2.4 million in volume.
The near-term outlook for whether the US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31 has swung sharply in recent days. Between Sunday, Nov. 1 and Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, the contract moved from 3% to 10%, a 7-point gain, even as related ceasefire contracts slipped — the US-Iran ceasefire through Nov. 2 fell from 98% to 70%, and the Israel-Iran ceasefire through Nov. 15 dropped from 69% to 58%. The divergence suggests traders are pricing a narrow window in which a transfer of material could be negotiated even as broader de-escalation appears more fragile. [Rg, Nov 3]
The underlying diplomacy remains contested. On June 13, 2026, President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that a deal with Iran was "scheduled to get signed tomorrow," adding that the Strait of Hormuz would be "OPEN TO ALL" immediately afterward and that the US would obtain Iran's enriched uranium, which he called "nuclear dust." Earlier, on June 1, Trump said the United States, working with Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency, would extract and destroy Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles, while insisting "no money will be exchanged." Iran rejected those terms, with officials linking progress to access to $12 billion in frozen assets, and Iranian National Security Commission spokesman Ebrahim Rezaei asserted that "Iranian management" of the Strait of Hormuz had been established. [Thejournal, Jun 13] [Cbsnews, Jun 1]
Energy markets are already pricing the risk. Brent crude gained 1.5% on Sunday night after Trump rejected an Iranian proposal, with disruption around the Strait of Hormuz continuing to pressure global energy markets, according to Yahoo. The year-end contract on whether the US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31 has drawn about $2.4 million in trading volume. The structural determinant remains whether Washington and Tehran can convert a signed framework into verified physical transfer under IAEA supervision — a step Iran has so far tied to sanctions relief and unfrozen assets. [Yahoo, Sep 28]
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