As of September 12, 2026, Polymarket prices “US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?” at 6% YES with $2.2M traded. 5 tracked wallets hold a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 6% probability to: us obtains iranian enriched uranium by december 31?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/8 models agree on NO, fair value 9c vs market 6c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 6c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 96c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 74c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 95c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 95c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 95c | 78% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
7 of 8 models estimate NO fair value below market (74–98c vs 94c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 91c — market prices it at 94c. 3-point gap supports YES.
All five tracked wallets are positioned on the NO side, with entries clustered between 73c and 95c, signaling strong conviction that the US will not obtain Iranian enriched uranium by December 31. Their willingness to pay up to 95c for NO implies smart money sees the event as near-impossible, leaving the 6c YES price as residual tail risk rather than a genuine probability.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc021..a8 ★ | Smart | NO | $8.8K | +20% | |
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $15.3K | +10% | |
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $13.6K | +6% | |
| 0x2e0b..70 | MM | NO | $6.4K | -2% | |
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | NO | $3.2K | +25% |
YES holders are entirely underwater at a 6c mark, with no tracked YES entries showing profit, while 80% of NO positions entered at 73c-95c remain profitable. This asymmetry gives NO holders little incentive to exit, reinforcing downside pressure on YES toward its 6c floor. The absence of profitable YES flow suggests no credible bid is forming to challenge the dominant NO side.
Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $2.2M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 9c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $2.2M |
| Our Model | 9c | — |