Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 56%: Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31. Currently, markets are divided (56% YES, 44% NO).

What’s Happening

Talks over the **israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31** accelerated in early August after Hamas formally accepted a mediators’ roadmap on July 31, 2026, with Egyptian broadcaster Al-Ghad reporting that an official signing ceremony for the second-phase agreement was expected in Cairo “in the middle of next week.” The draft, confirmed by Palestinian sources cited by Anadolu Ajansı, stipulates that implementation would begin within 14 days of approval by all relevant parties, contingent on a complete cessation of Israeli military operations and full fulfillment of first-phase commitments. Hamas reiterated on August 3 that it remains committed to stage two, which includes a phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the transition to a new Palestinian government, and the deployment of an International Stabilization Force alongside a reconstituted Palestinian police force [Scanx, Mon Aug 03].

The core sticking point remains the complete disarmament of Hamas and all armed groups, a condition Israeli officials have publicly doubted. During a December 29, 2025 meeting at the White House, President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed the ceasefire framework, with Trump later calling the disarmament plan “a historic agreement” — but Israeli security sources expressed skepticism about Hamas’s willingness to surrender weapons [DW, Mon Dec 29]. The roadmap’s conditions publication is due within two weeks, and the phased approach requires verification that each prior stage is completed before moving to the next, meaning the timeline for the **israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31** hinges on whether both sides accept third-party confirmation mechanisms for disarmament and withdrawal [NewsCord, Thu Jul 30].

The structural factor that will determine resolution is the sequencing of security arrangements: Hamas insists that progress on phase two is conditional on an end to Israeli operations, while Israel demands verifiable disarmament before any further troop redeployment. The first phase of the ceasefire, which took effect in October 2025 after two years of war, was brokered by the Trump administration and Egypt, and its implementation has been marked by repeated disputes over hostage releases and aid deliveries [CBC, Thu Nov 27]. With the Cairo signing expected imminently, the probability of completing the **israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31** rests on whether the International Stabilization Force can be stood up quickly enough to bridge the gap between Hamas’s demand for a full military halt and Israel’s requirement for a monitored disarmament process [Il Sole 24 ORE, Fri Jul 31].

Traded on Polymarket — $50K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($50K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 56c YES.