As of November 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?” at 6% YES with $79K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
The first phase of the ceasefire and hostage deal was announced Thursday, but Phase II by December 31 remains highly unlikely given the 5% odds.
The first phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and hostage deal took effect on Thursday, November 27, 2025, prompting celebrations among Israelis and Palestinians after Egyptian state media confirmed the agreement. The deal, announced under the framework of U.S. President Donald Trump's diplomatic push, established a temporary halt to hostilities and set the stage for further negotiations. The implementation of Phase I has focused attention on whether the israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31 can be reached within the narrow window remaining before the year-end deadline. [CBC, Nov 27]
On Monday, December 29, 2025, Trump warned Iran of possible military strikes and urged Hamas to disarm, speaking after a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The U.S. president said he would support another rapid Israeli attack on Tehran if Iran continues developing ballistic missile and nuclear weapons. Hawks within the Israeli government have argued that Hamas's continued arms stockpiles make a durable second-phase agreement unlikely, while analysts caution that disarmament timelines and verification mechanisms remain unresolved. The remarks underscored how regional escalation risks are weighing on the israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31 negotiations. [Reuters, Dec 29]
The structural factor determining resolution is the sequencing of Hamas disarmament against Israeli withdrawal from remaining positions, with mediators including Egypt and Qatar seeking bridging formulas. With Phase I hostage releases completed and the December 31 deadline approaching, no formal framework for Phase II has been publicly confirmed by the parties. The probability of the israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31 stands at 5% YES, reflecting the absence of announced terms as the calendar window closes. [Reuters, Dec 29]
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