Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?

As of August 21, 2026, Polymarket prices “Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?” at 22% YES with $60K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 20%: Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (20% YES).

What’s Happening

Negotiations over the **israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31** remain stalled as of early November, with Hamas partially rejecting Israel’s list of living hostages slated for release in the first stage of a potential deal. According to Israel’s Kan public broadcaster, the disagreement centers on the composition of the list, which is a precondition for any broader agreement covering a cessation of hostilities and the release of Palestinian prisoners. The talks, mediated by Qatar and Egypt, have not produced a breakthrough since the collapse of the previous truce, and Israeli officials have publicly conditioned any movement toward phase two on the return of all hostages, including the body of Ran Gvili, who remains in Gaza [The Media Line, Nov 02].

The structural gap between the parties is wide: Israel insists that any **israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31** must include the disarmament of Hamas and its complete exclusion from Gaza’s future governance, while Hamas has only agreed to a “roadmap” that does not require it to disband. A U.S.-brokered framework, reported by the Australian Institute of International Affairs, states that phase two does not mandate Hamas’s dissolution but bars it from any role in governing the strip, with progressive demilitarization and an Israeli commitment not to occupy or annex Gaza. However, senior Hamas official Bassem Naim has publicly questioned the legitimacy of the negotiating body, calling it a “Board of War” rather than a “Board of Peace,” signaling that the group may not accept the terms as written [Australian Institute of International Affairs, Dec 12].

The decisive factor for the **israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31** is the continued Israeli military pressure and the unresolved hostage issue. Israel has banned dozens of aid groups from operating in Gaza, including Caritas, and has stated it will not advance to the second stage—which includes infrastructure rebuilding, weapons interdiction, and economic investment—until all hostages and remains are returned. Meanwhile, violence persists on the ground, with Israeli strikes killing at least 30 Palestinians in late January 2026, according to health officials, and the Rafah crossing’s limited opening remains the only tangible step toward phase two. Without a verified hostage list and a credible disarmament mechanism, the probability of a full phase-two agreement by the end of the year remains low, as both sides continue to prioritize military objectives over diplomatic compromise [PBS News, Jan 31].

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