Geopolitics Prediction Markets

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Despite sustained sanctions and sporadic unrest, Tehran's security apparatus remains intact, keeping collapse odds low. All 12 tracked smart wallets hold NO, backed by $24.8M in volume.

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Succession speculation around 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has elevated his son as the presumed heir. All 7 tracked geopolitics wallets sit on the YES side across $6.1M in volume.

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Succession chatter persists amid regional pressure, but no imminent trigger has materialized. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO across $4.1M volume, signaling low conviction in near-term change.

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Markets strongly favor this outcome at 86% YES. 5 smart wallets positioned YES — watch for convergence.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 20%: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31.

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Cuban regime falls in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES).

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026.

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: China x Japan military clash before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Iran Nuke before 2027?

IAEA monitoring and stalled enrichment talks keep a weaponized breakout a low-odds tail bet through 2027. The single tracked wallet holding NO aligns with the durable status-quo edge that has kept this priced near 95%.

95%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

With no US signal to lift the Iranian naval blockade and tensions still elevated, a reversal before the Q3 deadline looks unlikely. All 3 tracked smart wallets sit on NO across $1.2M in volume.

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

Frozen US-Iran channels and stalled nuclear talks leave no meeting on the calendar. $917K traded, but the lone tracked wallet holds NO, betting diplomacy breaks through before the deadline.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

De-escalation signals between Washington and Tehran have tilted sentiment toward a lift this year. Both tracked smart wallets sit YES, aligned with the market's $867K in volume.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Talks have repeatedly stalled with no durable framework agreed as fighting continues into late 2026. Both tracked wallets sit on NO, matching $862K of volume that favors no deal.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Kyiv has repeatedly rejected any formal, legal cession of land despite stalled ceasefire talks, keeping YES pinned in single digits. The lone tracked smart wallet sits NO, aligned with the $700K book.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Iran's Strait of Hormuz ship attacks remain its core war leverage, so a US blockade-end announcement by October 31 stays a coin-flip at 42%.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

Backchannel signals persist but no direct meeting has materialized, keeping the market tilted toward NO. Three tracked smart-money wallets hold contrarian YES against the crowd on $479K volume.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Russia holds battlefield momentum and shows little urgency to halt fighting, keeping a year-end ceasefire unlikely despite mounting sanctions pressure.

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Tehran has threatened toll charges on Hormuz shipping but taken no formal action, keeping NO firmly ahead. Just one tracked wallet is positioned, backing NO, on $372K volume — thin conviction behind the current lean.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Stalled talks and ongoing frontline combat keep a near-term truce priced as unlikely. Just one tracked wallet is positioned NO, so smart-money conviction is thin against $326K in volume.

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?

Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire in April 2026, and with no strikes since, the truce looks likely to hold through September 30.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?

No signed maritime pact and talks stalled with the August 31 deadline near. The single tracked smart wallet holds NO, aligned with $314K in volume tilted firmly toward no deal.

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Water-cannon and ramming clashes near Second Thomas Shoal keep tensions high, yet both sides avoid lethal escalation. Both tracked wallets hold NO, betting on standoff over open conflict.

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

Cross-strait tensions stayed rhetorical through 2026 with no naval quarantine declared, keeping this pinned near status-quo NO. The lone tracked wallet sits NO, and $261K of volume shows firm conviction against escalation.

93%

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

Supreme Leader Khamenei remains entrenched despite ongoing regional tensions, keeping regime-change odds subdued. The lone tracked smart wallet sits NO, consistent with $248K in volume favoring the status quo.

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?

No fresh US-Iran strikes since the June truce, keeping the ceasefire intact toward Sept 15. Only one tracked wallet is positioned YES on $227K volume—thin smart-money conviction, not a strong signal.

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 90%: US x China tariff agreement by December 31.

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?

Consensus forecasts peg China's 2026 real GDP growth near 4.5%, squarely inside the 4.0-5.0% band and backing the 88% YES odds.

Iran full airspace closure by September 30?

Regional tensions have kept airspace-closure fears alive, but Iran has avoided a full shutdown despite prior escalations. Thin smart-money coverage—one tracked wallet—sits NO, aligned with $194K of volume favoring no closure.

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

No comprehensive U.S.-Iran deal exists yet, and any accord still faces Security Council veto risk before year-end. Both tracked wallets sit NO, aligned with $176K in volume leaning heavily against.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 69%: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31.

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 39%: Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31. Currently, markets are divided (39% YES, 61% NO).

Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31.

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 24%: Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (24% YES).

76%