Geopolitics Prediction Markets

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

US-Iran framework talks advanced this week per Pakistan-brokered reports, pushing YES to 66% as a May 31 deal looks plausible but unsigned.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Markets price invasion at 18%, with strike threats oscillating against diplomacy and Hormuz disruption tagged into 2027 — base case stays NO.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

NO at 93% reflects the structural calculus: Beijing wants Taiwan's chip fabs intact, not rubble, and a 2026 invasion destroys the prize.

93%

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 13%: Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (13% YES).

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Reuters reports US-Iran deal is "largely negotiated," yet a permanent peace pact by June 30 remains a tall order given verification hurdles.

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Xi remains firmly in power, with no succession signals and active diplomacy with Trump.

94%

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

No structural path: 93% NO reflects clerical-military control, with Pahlavi exiled and lacking domestic organization to seize power within 2026.

93%

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Markets price 70% NO despite NSC convening May 19 on Iran options; closure requires deliberate escalation, not just heightened tension.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 88%: US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Sanctions tightening and tanker pile-ups at Kharg signal pressure, not seizure; 94% NO reflects zero military path to dislodging Iran by June 30.

94%

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Tehran's regime has weathered recent protests and sanctions without visible succession signals as Khamenei holds power. Six smart wallets sit NO at 68%, with $2.5M volume reflecting structural skepticism on a short timeline.

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Stalled IAEA inspections and unresolved enrichment red lines have kept negotiations from advancing past technical-level talks. 7 smart wallets pricing NO at $2.4M volume mirror the diplomatic gridlock — no breakthrough catalyst in sight.

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 68%: Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026. Currently, markets are divided (68% YES, 32% NO).

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Supreme Leader insists enriched uranium stays in Iran while Tehran floats a 14-point counter-proposal, making surrender by June 30 highly unlikely.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Talks have stalled with no formal framework announced and a 3-week deadline tightening the window for ratification. Five tracked wallets are positioned NO against the 68% YES consensus, signaling skepticism on timeline feasibility.

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 11%: US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (11% YES).

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Maduro's 67% YES reflects entrenched military and Cuban-backed control, while Machado's exile-return push lacks a credible removal mechanism before December.

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Reza Pahlavi remains in exile with no credible re-entry pathway; the 88% NO reflects regime control over borders despite Iran war disruption.

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Machado's exile-return push and opposition momentum make a Maduro-to-Rodríguez handover unlikely by year-end, validating the 80% NO.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Counterproposal fell short of US demands and strikes continue, making a clean enrichment halt by June 30 a tall order.

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Framework talks in Geneva closed May 21 with both sides confirming a 60-day technical track on enrichment caps. Four tracked wallets opened YES at 0.68-0.74 average, with $1.4M volume skewed 3:1 toward upside.

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Markets price 92% NO as failed Ahmadinejad regime-change plot leaves Tehran intact while Trump-Iran talks signal de-escalation, not collapse.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Trump says Iran deal is "largely negotiated" and Reuters reports a comprehensive accord is near, fueling the 81% YES surge.

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Coup plot collapsed after the wounded ex-president withdrew, per US officials cited by NYT, leaving the 7% YES priced for residual unrest, not regime change.

94%

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Markets lean NO at 58%, but a 42% YES tail reflects active conflict spillover risk that keeps closure plausible through June.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Markets are split on this outcome at 50% YES. 2 tracked wallets with $974K in volume.

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Troop drawdowns are structured and gradual per NATO chief Rutte, signaling realignment rather than exit, which keeps NO firmly anchored at 93%.

93%

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Prediction markets put the probability at 67%: Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Iran is hardening its stance and rejecting US enrichment demands, with Khamenei refusing the core ask just 10 days from deadline.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 24%: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (24% YES).

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 30%: Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (30% YES).

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

NO at 91% is correct: even a "fine-tuned" framework is weeks from signatures, and a permanent deal by May 31 leaves zero room for ratification.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES).

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Markets are split on this outcome at 41% YES. 4 smart wallets positioned YES — watch for convergence.

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 19%: Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (19% YES).

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

Iran has kept airspace open through escalating regional strikes, with 64% NO reflecting that closure remains a last-resort signal Tehran rarely pulls.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Markets are split on this outcome at 57% YES. 2 tracked wallets with $336K in volume.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES).

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

Markets strongly favor this outcome at 88% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $263K in volume.

Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 22%: NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (22% YES).

Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).

91%

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 36c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?

YES holds the edge at 88% as the U.S.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 34%: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026. Currently, markets are divided (34% YES, 66% NO).

66%