Geopolitics: AI verdicts on 43 Polymarket markets

43 geopolitics markets carry an AI verdict — BUY YES, BUY NO or HOLD — because a tracked wallet holds a position; 107 more are tracked with live price and volume only. regime change, ceasefire timelines, territorial disputes.

One verdict per market a tracked wallet holds 3 math models + up to 5 AI models behind it 166 tracked wallets tiered daily by their record
Geopolitics

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Despite regional strikes and protests, Tehran's grip has held with no succession crisis in sight. $25.5M in volume and all 13 tracked wallets sit NO, pricing regime survival as near-certain.

NO
94%
YES
6%
+29c edge $328K from 13 tracked wallets ★2 +2% potential
Geopolitics

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Succession speculation around aging Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei keeps son Mojtaba the clerical frontrunner. All 6 tracked wallets hold YES on $6.4M volume, a firm consensus bet on a managed transition.

YES
85%
NO
15%
+19c edge $104K from 7 tracked wallets ★2 +4% potential
Geopolitics

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Regime-stability bets hold firm despite ongoing regional tensions and sanctions pressure, with no succession trigger emerging before year-end. All 4 tracked smart wallets sit on NO across $4.4M in volume.

NO
86%
YES
14%
+25c edge $28K from 4 tracked wallets ★1 +10% potential
Geopolitics

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Maduro stays entrenched despite US sanctions and a disputed 2024 mandate, with military backing making near-term ouster unlikely. All 4 tracked wallets sit YES on $2.8M volume, a firm consensus.

YES
83%
NO
17%
+37c edge $12K from 3 tracked wallets +15% potential
Geopolitics

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

No official move to lift Iran sanctions has surfaced with the Sept 30 deadline approaching. All 3 tracked geopolitics wallets hold NO, aligning with the $2.5M market's 84% skew.

NO
82%
YES
18%
+47c edge $25K from 4 tracked wallets +15% potential
Geopolitics

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Stalled front lines and no active ceasefire talks keep a near-term deal remote, pinning odds near lows. Yet 2 tracked smart wallets hold YES, a contrarian bet against the $2.7M NO-heavy flow.

NO
86%
YES
14%
-16c edge $4K from 2 tracked wallets +300% potential
Geopolitics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Stalled negotiations and ongoing front-line fighting keep a near-term deal a long shot. Both smart wallets tracked here hold NO, aligned with the $2.2M in trading volume.

NO
76%
YES
24%
+12c edge $3K from 2 tracked wallets ★1 +24% potential
Geopolitics

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Stalled enrichment talks and no signed framework keep a year-end deal out of reach. All three tracked geopolitics wallets hold NO, matching the $2.4M market's heavy skew against a breakthrough.

NO
90%
YES
10%
+13c edge $433K from 3 tracked wallets +5% potential
Geopolitics

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Tehran has repeatedly refused to surrender its stockpile despite sanctions pressure, keeping this pinned deep in NO. Both tracked smart wallets hold NO, matching the one-sided $2.2M in volume.

NO
94%
YES
6%
0c edge $23K from 3 tracked wallets +1% potential
Geopolitics

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 6c. 5 smart wallets tracked.

NO
94%
YES
6%
+12c edge $48K from 5 tracked wallets ★1 +1% potential
Geopolitics

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Persistent NATO-Russia border and airspace incidents keep a tail-risk premium priced into 2026. All 3 tracked geopolitics wallets lean YES against the 76% NO crowd on $1.8M volume—a contrarian smart-money tilt.

NO
80%
YES
20%
-18c edge $24K from 3 tracked wallets +300% potential
Geopolitics

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026.

NO
87%
YES
13%
-28c edge $1K from 1 tracked wallet ★1 +300% potential
Geopolitics

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Tehran has repeatedly rejected halting enrichment amid stalled nuclear talks, pinning YES odds in the low teens. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO, aligned with the $1.7M in trading volume.

NO
88%
YES
12%
+25c edge $33K from 4 tracked wallets +9% potential
Geopolitics

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Rolling blackouts and record emigration keep collapse talk alive, but the regime retains firm military control. A single tracked wallet sits NO, echoing the $1.7M market's lopsided lean.

NO
89%
YES
11%
+3c edge $2K from 1 tracked wallet +7% potential
Geopolitics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

No direct Moscow-Kyiv talks are scheduled and front lines remain frozen, leaving little runway to sign a deal before Oct 31. Both tracked wallets hold NO, backed by $1M in one-sided volume.

NO
88%
YES
12%
+21c edge $7K from 2 tracked wallets ★2 +7% potential
Geopolitics

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Renewed back-channel US-Iran talks have shifted sentiment toward de-escalation. Both tracked smart wallets sit on YES, aligned with $1.3M in volume leaning toward a lifted blockade.

YES
58%
NO
42%
-15c edge $50K from 2 tracked wallets +61% potential
Geopolitics

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

A holding truce with no fresh escalation reported in late September keeps disruption risk low. Both tracked smart wallets are positioned YES, backed by nearly $1M in volume.

YES
86%
NO
14%
-1c edge $10K from 2 tracked wallets ★1 +10% potential
Geopolitics

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Senkaku patrol tensions keep tail risk priced in, but a direct clash stays a low-base-rate event on this sub-two-year horizon. All 3 tracked geopolitics wallets hold NO across $1.3M in volume.

NO
94%
YES
6%
+3c edge $13K from 3 tracked wallets +2% potential
Geopolitics

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 36%: US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026.

NO
66%
YES
34%
+52c edge $7K from 2 tracked wallets +45% potential
Geopolitics

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

NO
92%
YES
8%
-39c edge $2K from 1 tracked wallet +300% potential
Geopolitics

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 40%: Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026.

NO
56%
YES
44%
+13c edge $5K from 1 tracked wallet +65% potential
Geopolitics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Kremlin statements and battlefield stalemate have kept a ceasefire out of reach, with no formal negotiation framework emerging. Two smart wallets, both with strong geopolitical track records, hold NO positions, aligning with the 84% consensus.

NO
88%
YES
12%
+13c edge $13K from 2 tracked wallets ★1 +9% potential
Geopolitics

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Zelensky’s public stance remains firm against territorial concessions, reinforced by Western military aid pledges. All tracked smart wallets hold NO, with volume concentrated on the downside, suggesting low odds of a pre-2027 deal.

NO
92%
YES
8%
+1c edge $2K from 1 tracked wallet +4% potential
Geopolitics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Ongoing battlefield stalemate and no formal negotiation framework have kept odds low despite sporadic diplomatic signals. One smart wallet holds a firm NO position, aligning with the 94% consensus and $443K in volume.

NO
94%
YES
6%
+7c edge $13K from 1 tracked wallet ★1 +1% potential
Geopolitics

Iran full airspace closure by September 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Iran full airspace closure by September 30.

NO
89%
YES
11%
+3c edge $6K from 1 tracked wallet +7% potential
Geopolitics

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?

Iranian naval exercises near the Strait of Hormuz and stalled IAEA talks have kept odds low. One smart wallet holds a NO position, aligning with $509K in volume favoring the status quo.

NO
92%
YES
8%
+3c edge $5K from 1 tracked wallet ★1 +4% potential
Geopolitics

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 62%: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31.

YES
64%
NO
36%
0c edge $15K from 3 tracked wallets +49% potential
Geopolitics

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 17%: Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (17% YES).

NO
88%
YES
12%
+44c edge $3K from 1 tracked wallet +9% potential
Geopolitics

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 32%: China x Philippines military clash before 2027.

NO
73%
YES
27%
+6c edge $6K from 3 tracked wallets +30% potential
Geopolitics

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES).

NO
70%
YES
30%
+23c edge $10K from 1 tracked wallet +35% potential
Geopolitics

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 5c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

NO
95%
YES
5%
+2c edge $12K from 1 tracked wallet 0% potential
Geopolitics

Iran full airspace closure by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 28%: Iran full airspace closure by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (28% YES).

NO
72%
YES
28%
+7c edge $10K from 2 tracked wallets +33% potential
Geopolitics

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027.

NO
74%
YES
26%
+13c edge $1K from 1 tracked wallet +29% potential
Geopolitics

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

Trade volume surged past $242K after Beijing signaled flexibility on agricultural purchases ahead of the APEC summit. The sole smart wallet tracking this market holds a YES position, aligning with the 89% consensus.

YES
89%
NO
11%
+3c edge $4K from 1 tracked wallet +7% potential
Geopolitics

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?

China’s 2026 growth target range aligns with official policy guidance and recent IMF forecasts, keeping odds stable near 89%. Two tracked smart wallets hold YES consensus, while $222K in volume shows no significant contrary flow.

YES
90%
NO
10%
+17c edge $5K from 2 tracked wallets +6% potential
Geopolitics

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31.

NO
86%
YES
14%
-17c edge $2K from 1 tracked wallet +300% potential
Geopolitics

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

Iran has not announced any Hormuz toll by December 31, with current odds at 31% YES versus 69% NO, and recent U.S.

NO
74%
YES
26%
+17c edge $4K from 1 tracked wallet +29% potential
Geopolitics

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

Paramount’s board has shown no formal interest, and regulatory scrutiny over media consolidation remains a major hurdle. The sole smart wallet is firmly positioned NO, while $152K in volume shows no meaningful YES accumulation.

NO
76%
YES
24%
-7c edge $1K from 1 tracked wallet +25% potential
Geopolitics

Russia coup attempt in 2026?

Kremlin security service purges and the Wagner Group's formal dissolution have reduced visible coup vectors. The sole tracked wallet holds a NO position, aligning with the 94% consensus despite $129K in volume.

NO
94%
YES
6%
+1c edge $3K from 1 tracked wallet +1% potential
Geopolitics

Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

The Academy expanded preferential ballot voting this year, boosting frontrunner momentum after its SAG ensemble win. One smart wallet holds a large YES position, aligning with the 55% consensus despite the $96K volume split.

YES
50%
NO
50%
-5c edge $4K from 1 tracked wallet +83% potential
Geopolitics

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 89%: Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (89% YES).

YES
90%
NO
10%
+46c edge $1K from 1 tracked wallet +5% potential
Geopolitics

Iran coup attempt by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Iran coup attempt by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

NO
86%
YES
14%
-4c edge $2K from 1 tracked wallet +10% potential
Geopolitics

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?

OpenAI’s hardware push remains speculative, with no credible leaks or supply-chain signals since the 2025 device pivot. One smart wallet holds a firm NO stance, and the $76K volume shows no late bullish accumulation.

NO
94%
YES
6%
+1c edge $2K from 1 tracked wallet ★1 +2% potential

Also tracked — no verdict yet (107)

No tracked wallet holds a position on these markets, so the Radar makes no call; price and volume are live.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
NO 92c
$3.3M
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
NO 94c
$2.7M
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
YES 86c
$1.2M
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
YES 91c
$1.2M
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?
NO 94c
$652K
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo
NO 93c
$618K
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
NO 94c
$533K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
YES 76c
$474K
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
NO 88c
$463K
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
NO 94c
$453K
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
NO 92c
$444K
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
NO 90c
$434K
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
NO 92c
$433K
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
NO 92c
$422K
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
NO 88c
$415K
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
NO 89c
$410K
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
NO 92c
$358K
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
NO 80c
$354K
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
YES 92c
$342K
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
NO 79c
$338K
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
NO 78c
$304K
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?
NO 90c
$292K
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?
NO 91c
$255K
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?
NO 94c
$244K
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
NO 86c
$243K
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
NO 94c
$238K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?
YES 54c
$232K
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?
YES 90c
$230K
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
YES 63c
$230K
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
NO 88c
$227K
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
NO 94c
$220K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
NO 94c
$217K
NATO article 5 before 2027?
NO 92c
$213K
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
YES 52c
$192K
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
NO 90c
$188K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
NO 58c
$187K
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
NO 92c
$186K
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
NO 93c
$153K
Ukraine coup attempt by December 31?
NO 94c
$152K
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
NO 92c
$151K
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
NO 92c
$151K
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
NO 78c
$147K
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
NO 90c
$146K
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
NO 90c
$137K
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
NO 92c
$136K
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?
YES 94c
$134K
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?
YES 72c
$134K
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?
NO 94c
$128K
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?
NO 94c
$127K
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?
NO 93c
$123K
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
NO 90c
$122K
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
NO 94c
$120K
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?
NO 94c
$119K
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
NO 94c
$116K
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by September 30?
NO 90c
$116K
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?
NO 91c
$115K
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
NO 90c
$112K
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?
NO 88c
$111K
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
YES 94c
$103K
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by September 30?
NO 94c
$97K
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by December 31?
NO 94c
$95K
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?
NO 91c
$93K
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
NO 90c
$89K
Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
YES 62c
$86K
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?
NO 62c
$85K
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by September 30?
NO 85c
$84K
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?
NO 93c
$81K
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?
NO 94c
$81K
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?
NO 93c
$80K
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
NO 84c
$76K
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?
NO 80c
$76K
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?
NO 74c
$76K
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?
YES 52c
$74K
Will JD Vance visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
NO 92c
$72K
Iran leadership change by October 31?
NO 94c
$72K
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?
NO 58c
$71K
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?
NO 70c
$71K
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?
YES 70c
$71K
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
NO 61c
$71K
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?
NO 82c
$69K
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?
NO 94c
$69K
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?
NO 72c
$68K
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?
NO 94c
$68K
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
YES 66c
$68K
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?
NO 63c
$66K
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?
YES 77c
$65K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
YES 67c
$65K
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?
NO 88c
$64K
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?
YES 78c
$63K
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
NO 86c
$62K
Greece x Turkey military engagement by December 31?
NO 91c
$60K
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?
NO 78c
$60K
Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
NO 82c
$59K
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?
NO 95c
$59K
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?
NO 78c
$58K
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
NO 72c
$57K
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026?
YES 94c
$57K
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by September 30?
NO 89c
$56K
Will "Hacks" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?
YES 58c
$55K
Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?
NO 92c
$54K
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?
NO 87c
$54K
Sher-E-Punjab T20: Jalandhar Warriors vs Amritsar Soormas
NO 52c
$54K
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
NO 82c
$54K
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026?
NO 88c
$54K
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?
NO 72c
$54K
Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30?
NO 92c
$52K
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
YES 84c
$51K

Browse by category

Politics
35 with a verdict · 117 tracked
US elections, impeachment odds, global leaders
Sports
2 with a verdict · 55 tracked
NBA Finals, World Cup 2026, Champions League, F1
Geopolitics
43 with a verdict · 150 tracked
Regime change, ceasefire timelines, sanctions
Crypto
15 with a verdict · 127 tracked
Bitcoin price targets, ETF approvals, DeFi events
Economics
28 with a verdict · 92 tracked
Fed rate decisions, inflation, recession odds
Other
39 with a verdict · 1470 tracked
Tech acquisitions, product launches, cultural events