Geopolitics: AI verdicts on 46 Polymarket markets

46 geopolitics markets carry an AI verdict — BUY YES, BUY NO or HOLD — because a tracked wallet holds a position; 82 more are tracked with live price and volume only. regime change, ceasefire timelines, territorial disputes.

One verdict per market a tracked wallet holds 3 math models + up to 5 AI models behind it 166 tracked wallets tiered daily by their record
Geopolitics

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Despite regional strikes and protests, Tehran's grip has held with no succession crisis in sight. $25.5M in volume and all 13 tracked wallets sit NO, pricing regime survival as near-certain.

NO
94%
YES
6%
+32c edge $316K from 11 tracked wallets ★2 +1% potential
Geopolitics

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Succession speculation around aging Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei keeps son Mojtaba the clerical frontrunner. All 6 tracked wallets hold YES on $6.4M volume, a firm consensus bet on a managed transition.

YES
88%
NO
12%
+22c edge $105K from 7 tracked wallets ★2 +3% potential
Geopolitics

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Regime-stability bets hold firm despite ongoing regional tensions and sanctions pressure, with no succession trigger emerging before year-end. All 4 tracked smart wallets sit on NO across $4.4M in volume.

NO
90%
YES
10%
+19c edge $29K from 4 tracked wallets ★1 +6% potential
Geopolitics

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 36%: US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026.

NO
80%
YES
20%
-9c edge $17K from 6 tracked wallets +103% potential
Geopolitics

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Maduro stays entrenched despite US sanctions and a disputed 2024 mandate, with military backing making near-term ouster unlikely. All 4 tracked wallets sit YES on $2.8M volume, a firm consensus.

YES
70%
NO
30%
+17c edge $14K from 5 tracked wallets +35% potential
Geopolitics

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 12c. 4 smart wallets tracked.

NO
88%
YES
12%
+8c edge $420K from 4 tracked wallets +9% potential
Geopolitics

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Renewed back-channel US-Iran talks have shifted sentiment toward de-escalation. Both tracked smart wallets sit on YES, aligned with $1.3M in volume leaning toward a lifted blockade.

YES
51%
NO
49%
-16c edge $74K from 3 tracked wallets +82% potential
Geopolitics

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Stalled front lines and no active ceasefire talks keep a near-term deal remote, pinning odds near lows. Yet 2 tracked smart wallets hold YES, a contrarian bet against the $2.7M NO-heavy flow.

NO
92%
YES
8%
+27c edge $1K from 1 tracked wallet +4% potential
Geopolitics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Stalled negotiations and ongoing front-line fighting keep a near-term deal a long shot. Both smart wallets tracked here hold NO, aligned with the $2.2M in trading volume.

NO
84%
YES
16%
+20c edge $5K from 3 tracked wallets ★1 +12% potential
Geopolitics

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 6c. 4 smart wallets tracked.

NO
94%
YES
6%
+10c edge $48K from 4 tracked wallets ★1 +1% potential
Geopolitics

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Persistent NATO-Russia border and airspace incidents keep a tail-risk premium priced into 2026. All 3 tracked geopolitics wallets lean YES against the 76% NO crowd on $1.8M volume—a contrarian smart-money tilt.

NO
78%
YES
22%
-17c edge $23K from 3 tracked wallets +300% potential
Geopolitics

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Tehran has repeatedly refused to surrender its stockpile despite sanctions pressure, keeping this pinned deep in NO. Both tracked smart wallets hold NO, matching the one-sided $2.2M in volume.

NO
92%
YES
8%
+12c edge $28K from 3 tracked wallets +3% potential
Geopolitics

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026.

NO
74%
YES
26%
-22c edge $7K from 4 tracked wallets ★1 +248% potential
Geopolitics

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Tehran has repeatedly rejected halting enrichment amid stalled nuclear talks, pinning YES odds in the low teens. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO, aligned with the $1.7M in trading volume.

NO
88%
YES
12%
+24c edge $23K from 4 tracked wallets +9% potential
Geopolitics

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Rolling blackouts and record emigration keep collapse talk alive, but the regime retains firm military control. A single tracked wallet sits NO, echoing the $1.7M market's lopsided lean.

NO
88%
YES
12%
+1c edge $3K from 2 tracked wallets +7% potential
Geopolitics

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 10c. 4 smart wallets tracked.

NO
90%
YES
10%
+2c edge $79K from 4 tracked wallets ★1 +5% potential 🔥 +1250% position growth
Geopolitics

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES).

NO
92%
YES
8%
+9c edge $9K from 3 tracked wallets +4% potential
Geopolitics

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 76c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

YES
76%
NO
24%
+15c edge $19K from 2 tracked wallets +26% potential
Geopolitics

Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 6c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

NO
94%
YES
6%
+2c edge $3K from 1 tracked wallet ★1 +1% potential
Geopolitics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 10c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

NO
90%
YES
10%
+14c edge $18K from 2 tracked wallets ★1 +5% potential
Geopolitics

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 40%: Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026.

NO
86%
YES
14%
+25c edge $9K from 2 tracked wallets ★1 +10% potential
Geopolitics

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 62%: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31.

YES
60%
NO
40%
-7c edge $18K from 3 tracked wallets +58% potential
Geopolitics

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Zelensky’s public stance remains firm against territorial concessions, reinforced by Western military aid pledges. All tracked smart wallets hold NO, with volume concentrated on the downside, suggesting low odds of a pre-2027 deal.

NO
94%
YES
6%
0c edge $9K from 1 tracked wallet +2% potential
Geopolitics

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 17%: Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (17% YES).

NO
94%
YES
6%
+50c edge $3K from 1 tracked wallet +2% potential
Geopolitics

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 32%: China x Philippines military clash before 2027.

NO
76%
YES
24%
+7c edge $9K from 4 tracked wallets +24% potential
Geopolitics

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 68%: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30. Currently, markets are divided (68% YES, 32% NO).

YES
64%
NO
36%
-2c edge $2K from 1 tracked wallet +49% potential
Geopolitics

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES).

NO
92%
YES
8%
0c edge $4K from 1 tracked wallet +4% potential
Geopolitics

Iran full airspace closure by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 28%: Iran full airspace closure by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (28% YES).

NO
76%
YES
24%
+12c edge $9K from 2 tracked wallets +24% potential
Geopolitics

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027.

NO
78%
YES
22%
+17c edge $2K from 1 tracked wallet +23% potential
Geopolitics

US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 36c. 3 smart wallets tracked.

NO
64%
YES
36%
-1c edge $14K from 3 tracked wallets +47% potential
Geopolitics

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 44c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

NO
56%
YES
44%
-1c edge $8K from 2 tracked wallets +110% potential
Geopolitics

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

Iran has not announced any Hormuz toll by December 31, with current odds at 31% YES versus 69% NO, and recent U.S.

NO
82%
YES
18%
+26c edge $4K from 1 tracked wallet +15% potential
Geopolitics

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31.

NO
90%
YES
10%
-20c edge $1K from 1 tracked wallet +300% potential
Geopolitics

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?

China’s 2026 growth target range aligns with official policy guidance and recent IMF forecasts, keeping odds stable near 89%. Two tracked smart wallets hold YES consensus, while $222K in volume shows no significant contrary flow.

YES
92%
NO
8%
+20c edge $5K from 2 tracked wallets +3% potential
Geopolitics

Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).

NO
86%
YES
14%
+1c edge $1K from 1 tracked wallet +300% potential
Geopolitics

Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 9c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

NO
91%
YES
9%
+7c edge $17K from 1 tracked wallet +4% potential
Geopolitics

Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES).

NO
90%
YES
10%
+2c edge $8K from 1 tracked wallet +5% potential
Geopolitics

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?

OpenAI’s hardware push remains speculative, with no credible leaks or supply-chain signals since the 2025 device pivot. One smart wallet holds a firm NO stance, and the $76K volume shows no late bullish accumulation.

NO
95%
YES
5%
+4c edge $5K from 2 tracked wallets ★1 0% potential
Geopolitics

Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

The Academy expanded preferential ballot voting this year, boosting frontrunner momentum after its SAG ensemble win. One smart wallet holds a large YES position, aligning with the 55% consensus despite the $96K volume split.

YES
50%
NO
50%
-4c edge $4K from 1 tracked wallet +87% potential
Geopolitics

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 48c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

NO
52%
YES
48%
+3c edge $4K from 1 tracked wallet +77% potential
Geopolitics

Iran leadership change by November 30?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 6c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

NO
94%
YES
6%
+4c edge $4K from 1 tracked wallet ★1 +2% potential
Geopolitics

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 8c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

NO
92%
YES
8%
+2c edge $4K from 2 tracked wallets +4% potential
Geopolitics

Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 6c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

NO
94%
YES
6%
+4c edge $5K from 1 tracked wallet +2% potential
Geopolitics

Iran coup attempt by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Iran coup attempt by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

NO
90%
YES
10%
-1c edge $2K from 1 tracked wallet +6% potential
Geopolitics

Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 16c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

NO
84%
YES
16%
+11c edge $2K from 1 tracked wallet ★1 +14% potential
Geopolitics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 22c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

NO
78%
YES
22%
-8c edge $2K from 1 tracked wallet +293% potential

Also tracked — no verdict yet (82)

No tracked wallet holds a position on these markets, so the Radar makes no call; price and volume are live.

Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
YES 72c
$1.4M
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
YES 83c
$1.3M
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
NO 94c
$665K
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
NO 89c
$601K
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
NO 94c
$597K
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
NO 94c
$564K
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
NO 87c
$550K
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
NO 92c
$470K
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
NO 94c
$449K
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
YES 94c
$429K
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
NO 94c
$388K
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
NO 86c
$372K
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
NO 92c
$339K
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
YES 60c
$328K
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
NO 84c
$311K
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
NO 64c
$305K
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?
NO 84c
$289K
NATO article 5 before 2027?
NO 95c
$267K
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
NO 86c
$266K
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?
NO 70c
$233K
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
NO 94c
$221K
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
NO 86c
$218K
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
NO 92c
$191K
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?
NO 88c
$186K
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
NO 86c
$184K
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?
NO 68c
$178K
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
NO 88c
$174K
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?
NO 78c
$173K
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?
YES 50c
$163K
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)
NO 80c
$161K
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?
NO 93c
$157K
Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026?
NO 94c
$152K
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
NO 92c
$150K
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?
NO 88c
$147K
Will JD Vance visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
NO 91c
$147K
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
NO 77c
$127K
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
NO 95c
$126K
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
NO 86c
$124K
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?
NO 76c
$122K
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
YES 94c
$119K
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?
NO 90c
$119K
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?
NO 94c
$113K
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?
NO 94c
$104K
Will Baidu be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
NO 84c
$99K
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?
NO 81c
$98K
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by December 31?
NO 95c
$98K
Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
YES 70c
$98K
Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
NO 90c
$97K
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?
NO 92c
$95K
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
NO 92c
$93K
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
NO 92c
$90K
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?
NO 90c
$85K
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?
NO 74c
$85K
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?
NO 93c
$82K
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
NO 66c
$80K
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?
NO 94c
$79K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?
NO 67c
$78K
Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?
YES 69c
$78K
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?
NO 90c
$74K
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?
YES 60c
$73K
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
YES 82c
$72K
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
NO 88c
$71K
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?
YES 68c
$69K
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?
NO 66c
$68K
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?
NO 88c
$63K
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
NO 86c
$63K
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
NO 78c
$63K
Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
NO 85c
$63K
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?
NO 66c
$61K
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?
YES 92c
$61K
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
NO 93c
$61K
Greece x Turkey military engagement by December 31?
NO 94c
$60K
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?
NO 90c
$59K
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?
YES 57c
$59K
Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
NO 80c
$58K
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?
NO 74c
$58K
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?
NO 85c
$57K
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
NO 84c
$56K
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?
NO 94c
$56K
Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?
NO 94c
$55K
Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
NO 62c
$53K
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?
NO 92c
$53K

Browse by category

Politics
43 with a verdict · 133 tracked
US elections, impeachment odds, global leaders
Sports
1 with a verdict · 61 tracked
NBA Finals, World Cup 2026, Champions League, F1
Geopolitics
46 with a verdict · 128 tracked
Regime change, ceasefire timelines, sanctions
Crypto
8 with a verdict · 96 tracked
Bitcoin price targets, ETF approvals, DeFi events
Economics
18 with a verdict · 58 tracked
Fed rate decisions, inflation, recession odds
Other
31 with a verdict · 1584 tracked
Tech acquisitions, product launches, cultural events