Geopolitics Prediction Markets

Live odds on 112 geopolitical prediction markets — regime change, ceasefire timelines, territorial disputes. Smart money wallets and AI models analyze events that move global markets.

Real-time odds from Polymarket & Kalshi 5 AI models analyze every market 166 top wallets tracked on-chain

All ★ Best Bets 4 Politics 24 Geopolitics 37 Economics 22 Crypto 10 Sports 4 Science 2 Other 33

37 analyzed · 112 total

Geopolitics

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Diplomatic posturing has cooled with no direct U.S. military escalation despite regional tension. All 15 tracked smart wallets hold NO across $39.9M in volume, a durable structural consensus.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Regime's security apparatus remains intact despite sustained protests and sanctions pressure, keeping NO firmly priced. All 12 tracked smart wallets hold NO across $21.5M in volume.

92%

YES

Geopolitics

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Xi's norm-breaking third term and absence of a named successor leave no institutional path to an early exit. The lone tracked wallet sits NO, matching $11.2M in volume that favors continuity.

95%

YES

Geopolitics

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Despite regional tensions, Khamenei's grip on power shows no succession crisis, keeping YES bids thin. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO, aligned with the 84% consensus across $3.1M in volume.

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei's absence from his father's funeral raised succession doubts, yet markets price him 83% likely to lead Iran by end of 2026.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

No framework deal has emerged with under two months left to the deadline, making a comprehensive agreement unlikely. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO across $2.5M in volume — firm conviction, no dissent.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Repeated ceasefire rounds have collapsed without a lasting framework, keeping a signed deal a distant prospect. All 3 tracked smart wallets sit on NO, backed by $2.4M in volume showing firm conviction.

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Maduro has held power despite US sanctions and post-2024-election pressure, with no credible ouster mechanism in sight. All 4 tracked wallets sit on YES, backed by $2.1M volume.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Tehran has resisted any handover in negotiations, keeping the market firmly at 85% NO. Yet three geopolitics wallets are positioned YES against the crowd — a contrarian signal on $1.9M volume.

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Pahlavi remains in exile abroad with no announced plan to return while Tehran's clerical government holds firm, leaving little runway before year-end. All 5 tracked smart wallets back NO across $1.9M in volume.

94%

YES

Geopolitics

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

A handover of Iran's enriched stockpile would require a negotiated deal, yet talks remain stalled with no framework agreed. All 4 tracked wallets hold NO, aligned with the $1.8M in one-sided volume.

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Rodríguez sits as Maduro's VP, and only his exit would elevate her — no such transition is underway. The single tracked smart wallet holds NO, echoing $1.7M in volume leaning against a handover.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Front lines around Crimea have stayed frozen with no Ukrainian breakthrough, keeping recapture odds pinned near single digits. The lone tracked smart wallet sits NO, echoing the 90% skew across $1.7M in volume.

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Water-cannon standoffs near Scarborough Shoal keep tensions high, but neither side has fired a shot. Both tracked smart wallets sit on NO, aligned with $1.3M in volume betting against open conflict.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Washington revoked Iran's oil-sale waiver as new satellite images show activity at a buried nuclear site, keeping odds at 78% NO.

Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?

LeBron remains under contract with the Lakers for 2026-27, leaving no clear path to Golden State despite offseason trade chatter. Both tracked smart wallets sit NO, aligned with the 83% consensus on $1.1M volume.

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

Six days from the July 15 deadline, Iranian airspace remains open, keeping expectations low. The single tracked smart wallet holds NO, matching the $1.1M market's 79% lean.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Iran has advanced enrichment but no test and no clear political trigger, leaving a 2027 detonation a tail risk. The lone tracked wallet holds NO, aligned with the $1.1M market's near-certain fade.

95%

YES

Geopolitics

Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

Regional tensions cooled since the June Iran-Israel exchange, making a two-week airspace shutdown a tail risk. The lone tracked wallet sits NO, and $1.1M in volume backs the heavy skew.

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Past missile exchanges triggered only hours-long airspace closures, never a sustained shutdown. The single tracked smart wallet sits NO, aligned with the $1M market's heavy lean against closure.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

A signed nuclear accord within this narrow window looks unlikely, with Washington and Tehran yet to agree even a framework. All 5 tracked smart-money wallets sit on NO across $1M in volume.

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Talks remain intact, keeping a formal walkout priced as unlikely on $910K volume. Only one tracked smart wallet is positioned, on NO — a thin signal worth watching, not a strong consensus.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Stalled backchannel signals and regional friction have kept the odds near a coin flip. Only one tracked smart wallet has taken a side—NO—so despite $734K in volume, the conviction signal is thin.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Stalled negotiations with no breakthrough at recent talks keep NO firmly ahead heading into H2 2026. All 3 tracked geopolitics wallets hold NO positions, backed by $678K in trading volume.

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

US-Iran tensions keep military escalation in play, yet a formal blockade this month reads as a low-probability tail. All 3 tracked smart wallets hold NO, backed by $605K in volume.

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Ongoing war in Ukraine and periodic airspace incursions keep escalation fears alive, but direct alliance-wide conflict remains a tail risk. The sole tracked smart wallet sits on NO, aligning with $555K in mostly bearish flow.

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

Oman remains the favored broker for US-Iran backchannels, leaving Qatar a long-shot venue. The lone tracked wallet holds NO, in line with $466K in volume tilting bearish.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

No direct US-Iran talks are scheduled with just eight days left on the clock, keeping odds firmly low. The single tracked smart wallet holds a NO position, and $466K in volume reinforces the skeptical lean.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?

A comprehensive deal by the tight September deadline looks unlikely with no framework yet agreed. The one tracked smart wallet holds NO, aligning with the $464K book's bearish lean.

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

Xi last visited the US in November 2023 for APEC; with trade talks and summit diplomacy ongoing, markets price a 94% chance he returns before 2027.

YES

94%

Geopolitics

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Trump called the Iran ceasefire over after strikes, and reports say Tehran is dragging out talks as the 60-day deadline looks unlikely to hold.

Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026?

LPL teams own multiple past MSI titles, but LCK's recent international dominance keeps China priced as the underdog. Just one tracked wallet is positioned, leaning NO — thin signal on a single data point.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Front lines stay largely frozen with no diplomatic breakthrough, keeping a near-term truce unlikely. Both tracked geopolitics wallets hold NO, echoing the $217K market's lean.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Stalled talks and ongoing front-line fighting make a near-term truce unlikely heading into H2 2026. Both tracked wallets hold NO across $199K in volume, reinforcing low odds of a deal.

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?

Naval blockade would mark a sharp escalation beyond current US-Iran sanctions, keeping the market near a coin-flip. Only one tracked wallet is positioned, on NO—too thin to read as real consensus.

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

Repeated US-China negotiation rounds have signaled tariff de-escalation, keeping YES dominant. Only one tracked wallet is positioned here, backing YES on modest $147K volume.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?

Repeated peace talks have stalled without a durable truce, keeping traders doubtful a deal lands this window. The lone tracked wallet holds NO, in step with $144K of volume leaning against agreement.

88%

YES

12%