Live odds on 38 geopolitical prediction markets — regime change, ceasefire timelines, territorial disputes. Smart money wallets and AI models analyze events that move global markets.
Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES). Regimes fall when citizens, elites, and security forces come
Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES). Iran war teaching Taiwan hard lessons about US resolve.
Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES). Removing a tyrant is easy.
Prediction markets put the probability at 30%: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (30% YES). Zelensky at the time urged Moscow to extend the 30-hour tru
Prediction markets put the probability at 7%: Xi Jinping out before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (7% YES). Fresh humiliation for Chairman Xi Jinping as new Xiong’an megacity stalls: ‘
Prediction markets put the probability at 56%: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027. Currently, markets are divided (56% YES, 44% NO).
Prediction markets put the probability at 24%: US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (24% YES). President Trump claimed in an interview with Axios that the U.S.
Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES). It was later passed as part of the 2024 National Defense Authori
Prediction markets put the probability at 42%: US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027. Currently, markets are divided (42% YES, 58% NO). President Trump claimed in an interview with Axios that the U.S.
Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES). Russia Gives Ukraine ‘2 Months’ to Quit Donbas or Fa
Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: China coup attempt before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES). | SMCFK2026")SGX ICIS SM CFR China Futures (May 2026)") | 2026-05-29 | 1
Prediction markets put the probability at 66%: Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026. Currently, markets are divided (66% YES, 34% NO). Mark Your Calendars For WBD, Paramount Fi