Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 57%: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31. Currently, markets are divided (57% YES, 43% NO). Live Updates Mediators Propose 10-day Cease-fire to Revive Iran-U.S.

What’s Happening

The U.S. military said late on Tuesday, July 21, that it had ended its latest round of attacks on Iran, marking the 11th successive night of strikes as the region's most recent ceasefire remained broken. According to CENTCOM, the operations coincided with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) firing on tankers and claiming to have blown up two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran also said it targeted U.S. missile systems in Kuwait and aircraft in Jordan, while Washington issued a "worldwide caution" to citizens. The question of whether an israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 hinges on a truce that has not yet been reestablished after 10 straight nights of bombing failed to force a settlement. [Reuters, Jul 22]

Regional mediators — Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan and others — have presented the U.S. and Iran with a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire intended to revive Iran-U.S. talks, according to two regional sources. Hawks around President Trump frame the moment as a fork between a negotiated pause and "all-out war," with U.S. and Israeli officials reportedly envisioning only two viable endgames. Analysts caution that Tehran is pursuing "both war and diplomacy," signaling it received the U.S. proposals but will act on national interests, leaving any near-term truce fragile. Whether the israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 depends heavily on whether these mediated terms are accepted before month's end. [Axios, Jul 21]

The structural determinant is the Strait of Hormuz: continued IRGC attacks on shipping and Israeli strikes into southern Lebanon, including Kfar Tebnit, signal that hostilities remain active rather than paused. With no truce currently in force and a new 10-day framework still unsigned, resolution turns on whether mediators can convert the proposal into a durable halt in the roughly one week remaining. If strikes cease and both sides hold fire, the market resolves toward YES; renewed escalation resolves NO. The near-term reality — 11 consecutive nights of U.S. operations through July 21 — underscores why the israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 outcome remains unsettled. [Jerusalem Post, Jul 21]

Traded on Polymarket — $412K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 57c YES with $412K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.