As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?” at 61% YES with $595K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets put the probability at 68%: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30. Currently, markets are divided (68% YES, 32% NO). So far, the ceasefire that began at 4:00 a.m.
The question of whether the Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 intensified after Iran secretly submitted a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire to the United States while under intense US strikes, according to sources cited on July 21, 2026. A senior official said US operations would continue "until the president decides otherwise," even as bilateral talks proceed. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a security consultation that ran more than five and a half hours, ending at 1:30 a.m., underscoring how fluid the diplomatic and military picture remains. The exchange follows months in which Iran and the United States have continued to trade fire despite intermittent talks. [Jerusalem Post, Jul 21]
Hawks in Israel argue that aggressive enforcement is what holds the line: analysts at the Begin-Sadat Center noted the November 27, 2024 Lebanon truce is "holding — at least in Middle East terms," with Israel striking Hezbollah sites where infractions are observed and locating hidden weapons stores. Cautious observers counter that the arrangement is fragile. Earlier in 2026, President Donald Trump described the ceasefire as "on life support," and Lebanon's health ministry reported 380 people killed since the April truce began. Both Israel and Hezbollah have accused each other of violations almost daily. [CBS News, May 13]
Whether the Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 will likely hinge on the US-Iran negotiating track, including reported disputes over enriched uranium and the Strait of Hormuz. In June, Israel and Iran stepped back from direct threats after a day of tension, but Israel maintained its campaign in southern Lebanon that Tehran claims fell within the original truce. The structural determinant is whether daily low-level clashes stay contained or escalate into a broader Israel-Iran confrontation before the deadline, keeping the Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 outcome tightly bound to talks in Washington. [NYT, Jun 01]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moModels see 22-point mispricing — fair value 83c vs market 61c. BUY YES at 61c — models see 22c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 55c | 25% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 62c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 68c | 55% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 65c | 62% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
Models are split on direction. Average fair value estimate: 83c vs market 61c.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 83c — market prices it at 61c. 22-point gap supports YES.
Smart money is effectively one wallet, long YES at 62c, signaling a modest bullish lean on ceasefire continuation but with no conviction sizing or NO counter-position to validate the call. A single 62c entry offers weak directional signal; watch whether the wallet defends near breakeven or capitulates, which would flag fading confidence in the November 30 ceasefire.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | Smart | YES | $1.2K | -1% |
The sole tracked wallet holds a YES position entered at 62c, now marked at 61c, leaving 0% of YES and NO holders in profit—a flat, underwater book with no realized gains. With no profitable cohort to defend the level, the 61c price has thin support and is vulnerable to drift toward the 62c entry cost, where the holder may add or exit.
Polymarket prices YES at 61c with $595K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 83c. Significant 22-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 61c | $595K |
| Our Model | 83c | — |