AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | YES | 96c |
92%
|
|
| PIN Model | YES | 96c |
92%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 74c |
48%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 88c |
62%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 62c |
55%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 92c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 35c |
62%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 78c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Both tracked wallets are positioned on the YES side at 88c, signaling smart-money conviction that the ceasefire persists through September 30. Their entries 6c below the current price indicate early accumulation before the market fully priced in continuation, and no offsetting NO entries suggests no credible hedge against the outcome. This one-sided positioning points to continued upside pressure or at minimum a firm floor near their 88c entry.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | YES | $7.2K | +8% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $1.3K | -47% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$289 on $8.5K capital deployed (avg -3.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $3.3M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 78c | — | ✓ matched |