Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 32%: Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30. Currently, markets are divided (32% YES, 68% NO). Israel's government is expected to collapse over ultra-Orthodox military draft.

What’s Happening

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition is facing its most acute test in months after the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party announced on May 12, 2026 that it would back legislation to dissolve the Knesset, citing the coalition's failure to advance a bill codifying military-service exemptions for Haredi yeshiva students. The seven-seat UTJ faction said its Degel HaTorah wing had "lost trust" in Netanyahu after he told ultra-Orthodox leaders he would not push the exemption law through this session. For the Israeli parliament dissolved scenario to materialize before June 30, the opposition would need parallel support from the 11-seat Shas party, with a procedural vote tentatively eyed for Wednesday. [Times of Israel, May 12]

The trigger is a long-running constitutional dispute over conscription. Israel's Supreme Court struck down the blanket Haredi exemption in 2024, ordering the military to begin drafting ultra-Orthodox men, but coalition partners conditioned their continued support on legislative reinstatement of the carve-out. Netanyahu's reported pivot — declining to advance the exemption bill while signaling support for a draft-enforcement track — broke the détente that had held the 64-seat coalition together since the October 2023 war began. Opposition leader Yair Lapid formally called for early Knesset dissolution on May 11, coordinating with former prime minister Naftali Bennett on a joint electoral run. [NPR, May 12]

The procedural path remains narrow. A preliminary dissolution vote requires a simple majority, but the bill must clear committee and three plenary readings — a process that historically takes weeks and can be stalled by coalition whips. Shas leader Aryeh Deri has not publicly committed to joining UTJ, and Netanyahu retains negotiating leverage through cabinet portfolios and budget allocations. Even if dissolution legislation passes, the Knesset can set an election date 90 days out, meaning the chamber technically remains seated until polls close. Whether the Israeli parliament dissolved formally before the June 30 deadline depends on Shas's posture in the next 48 hours and whether Netanyahu offers a last-minute exemption framework to peel UTJ back. [Times of Israel, May 11]

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