Politics

Resolves: Sep 2026 32 days left Volume: $8.2M

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?'?

As of August 2026, prediction markets price this at 76% YES on Polymarket with $8.2M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?'?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 82c YES. 6 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

YES

76c

24c

Prediction markets put the probability at 74%: Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election. Currently, markets see this as likely (74% YES).

Up from 56% to 76% since 2026-05-31 (+20pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $8.2M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $8.2M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 76c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

On this market: 6/7 models independently agree YES — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.

PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY YES 76c

6/7 models agree on YES, fair value 82c vs market 74c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY YES at 74c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

6 of 7 Models Agree: YES

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH Bayesian Update	YES	84c	—
MATH PIN Model	YES	98c	—
MATH Compound Signal	YES	64c	—
AI DeepSeek Quant	YES	82c	68%
AI Grok Contrarian	NO	58c	31%
AI Gemini Flash	YES	79c	80%
AI Kimi Macro	YES	82c	75%

6 of 7 models estimate YES fair value above market (64–98c vs 74c). Gemini Flash leads with 80% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of YES at 82c — market prices it at 74c. 8-point gap supports YES.

Why One Model Disagrees: Grok Contrarian dissents at 42c — Consensus at 74% YES (and math models at 82%) massively underprices tail risks of Putin incapacitation, elite fracture, or war-induced sy...

1 of 2 Wallets Is a Politics Specialist

We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 1 is a politics specialist with 100% win rate. All 1 positioned YES — unanimous.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xc021..a8 ★	Smart	YES	$3.0K	+0%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 75c → now 76c (+0%), $3.0K on YES Activity · 2 events · Jan 11 → Aug 20 DatePositionAmountTotal Jan 11BUYYES80+$1,603$1,603 Aug 20BUYYES71+$1,420$2,847 Realized— Unrealized+$4 Total Profit+$4 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1130 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0xeb6f..f0	MM	YES	$2.6K	+12%
This Market Entered at 66c → now 76c (+12%), $2.6K on YES Activity · 8 events · Jan 13 → Aug 26 DatePositionAmountTotal Jan 13BUYYES81+$208$208 Jan 27SELLYES71−$205$0 Mar 30BUYYES67+$20$20 Jun 15SELLYES60−$6$12 Jun 16BUYYES58+$854$865 Aug 05BUYYES68+$1,020$2,034 Aug 24BUYYES71+$20$2,144 Aug 26BUYYES74+$370$2,605 Realized−$26 Unrealized+$338 Total Profit+$312 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1224) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 alpha wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

All YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 66c–75c. At current price 76c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 76c YES — $8.2M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 76c with $8.2M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 82c. 6-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	76c	$8.2M
Our Model	82c	—

Back to Market Radar

Related Markets

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

As of August 2026, Polymarket prices this at 76% YES with $8.2M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 82c YES. 6 models agree on direction.