Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (5 of 6 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Sep 21, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $24.5M

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Q: How did 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Sep 21, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · SEP 21

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 5 of 6 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

7 of 8 Models Agreed: YES

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	YES	88c	76%
PIN Model	YES	95c	90%
Compound Signal	YES	67c	34%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	88c	82%
Grok Contrarian	YES	68c	42%
Gemini Flash	YES	84c	85%
Kimi Macro	YES	87c	82%
Claude Analysis	???	—	0%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 82c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

4 of 9 Tracked Wallets

Across 9 tracked wallets, YES entries span 66c-82c versus a lone NO cluster at 24c, signaling that informed money is overwhelmingly positioned long on United Russia. The tight, higher-priced YES entries suggest conviction rather than speculation, reinforcing the 80c level as a floor rather than a ceiling.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x12d6..a8	Smart	YES	$7.7K	+6%
This Market Entered at 75c → now 50c (+6%), $7.7K on YES Activity · 3 events · Sep 19 → Sep 20 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 19BUYYES74+$6,324$6,323 Sep 19SELLYES75−$878$5,519 Sep 20BUYYES80+$1,785$7,666 Realized+$10 Unrealized+$487 Total Profit+$497 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1280 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0xc021..a8 ★	Smart	YES	$5.6K	+12%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 72c → now 50c (+12%), $5.6K on YES Activity · 3 events · Jan 11 → Aug 31 DatePositionAmountTotal Jan 11BUYYES80+$1,603$1,603 Aug 20BUYYES71+$1,420$2,847 Aug 31BUYYES68+$2,040$4,766 Realized— Unrealized+$579 Total Profit+$579 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1120 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0x8152..da	Smart	YES	$5.6K	+4%
This Market Entered at 77c → now 50c (+4%), $5.6K on YES Activity · 4 events · Aug 30 → Sep 16 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 30BUYYES73+$730$730 Sep 12BUYYES79+$3,160$3,950 Sep 15BUYYES77+$770$4,620 Sep 16BUYYES75+$750$5,250 Realized— Unrealized+$225 Total Profit+$225 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1738 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0xd039..32	Smart	NO	$1.1K	-19%
This Market Entered at 24c → now 50c (-19%), $1.1K on NO Activity · 1 event · Sep 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 19BUYNO24+$1,401$1,401 Realized— Unrealized−$263 Total Profit−$263 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1354 resolved bets. Disagrees with consensus.
0x4488..19 ★	Retail	YES	$44.4K	+6%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 76c → now 50c (+6%), $44.4K on YES Activity · 2 events · Sep 17 → Sep 18 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 17BUYYES75+$21,233$21,233 Sep 18BUYYES77+$20,654$42,453 Realized— Unrealized+$2,496 Total Profit+$2,496 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 932 trades).
0x44c1..c1	MM	YES	$16.4K	-2%
This Market Entered at 82c → now 50c (-2%), $16.4K on YES Activity · 1 event · Sep 18 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 18BUYYES82+$16,740$16,740 Realized— Unrealized−$306 Total Profit−$306 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1724) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$4.8K	-1%
This Market Entered at 81c → now 50c (-1%), $4.8K on YES Activity · 1 event · Sep 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 19BUYYES81+$4,860$4,860 Realized— Unrealized−$30 Total Profit−$30 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1926) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xeb6f..f0	MM	YES	$2.8K	+19%
This Market Entered at 66c → now 50c (+19%), $2.8K on YES Activity · 8 events · Jan 13 → Aug 26 DatePositionAmountTotal Jan 13BUYYES81+$208$208 Jan 27SELLYES71−$205$0 Mar 30BUYYES67+$20$20 Jun 15SELLYES60−$6$12 Jun 16BUYYES58+$854$865 Aug 05BUYYES68+$1,020$2,034 Aug 24BUYYES71+$20$2,144 Aug 26BUYYES74+$370$2,605 Realized−$26 Unrealized+$513 Total Profit+$486 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1190) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5188..04	MM	YES	$1.3K	+1%
This Market Entered at 80c → now 50c (+1%), $1.3K on YES Activity · 1 event · Sep 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 19BUYYES80+$1,317$1,317 Realized— Unrealized+$8 Total Profit+$8 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1542) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$25,771 on $89.9K capital deployed (avg +28.7%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

99% in profit

NO positions

1% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	80c	$24.5M	100c
AI Consensus	82c	—	✓ matched

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