Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 56% YES on Polymarket with $2.8M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?'?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 73c YES. 7 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

YES

56c

44c

Prediction markets put the probability at 56%: Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election. Currently, markets are divided (56% YES, 44% NO).

Down from 66% to 56% since 2026-04-14 (-10pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $2.8M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $2.8M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 56c YES.

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On this market: 7/5 AI models agree YES. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

CONFLICTING OUR VERDICT

HOLD

Smart money wallets positioned NO, but 7/7 models estimate YES. Signals conflict — waiting for consolidation.

— TARGET YIELD

7 of 7 Models Agree: YES

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH Bayesian Update	YES	70c	—
MATH PIN Model	YES	98c	—
MATH Compound Signal	YES	50c	—
AI Claude Analysis	YES	82c	65%
AI DeepSeek Quant	YES	70c	65%
AI Gemini Flash	YES	68c	65%
AI Kimi Macro	YES	73c	70%

7 of 7 models estimate YES fair value above market (50–98c vs 56c). Kimi Macro leads with 70% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of YES at 73c — market prices it at 56c. 17-point gap supports YES.

2 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money committed to YES at premium 70-80c levels — a directional bet on ER dominance that the market has since discounted by ~20-30%. Despite the drawdown, neither wallet has exited, signaling continued conviction that ER retains structural advantage; the dominant NO flow appears to be untracked retail skepticism rather than informed alpha.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x0845..6f	MM	YES	$2.1K	-17%
This Market Entered at 70c → now 56c (-17%), $2.1K on YES Activity · 13 events · Jan 07 → Apr 28 DatePositionAmountTotal Jan 07BUYYES92+$9$9 Mar 01BUYYES76+$94$101 Mar 05BUYYES79+$327$432 Mar 12BUYYES74+$148$553 Mar 17BUYYES74+$81$634 Mar 18BUYYES73+$36$662 Mar 26BUYYES70+$107$742 Apr 01BUYYES68+$581$1,303 Apr 02BUYYES69+$415$1,740 Apr 05BUYYES68+$926$2,637 Apr 06BUYYES67+$60$2,658 Apr 07BUYYES68+$474$3,171 Apr 28SELLYES66−$650$2,428 Realized−$38 Unrealized−$511 Total Profit−$549 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1008) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc021..a8 ★	MM	YES	$1.1K	-30%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 80c → now 56c (-30%), $1.1K on YES Activity · 1 event · Jan 11 DatePositionAmountTotal Jan 11BUYYES80+$1,603$1,603 Realized— Unrealized−$478 Total Profit−$478 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1232) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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No Positions Are Currently in Profit

Both tracked YES wallets entered at 70-80c and now sit underwater at 56c, with 0% of YES positions in profit. The absence of NO entries from tracked smart money means no profitable counter-positioning to validate the downside, leaving price support thin and driven by retail flow rather than conviction capital.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 56c YES — $2.8M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 56c with $2.8M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 73c. Significant 17-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	56c	$2.8M
Our Model	73c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 56% YES with $2.8M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 73c YES. 7 models agree on direction.