AI consensus leaned YES with STRONG conviction (6 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 45c |
10%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 12c |
75%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 45c |
30%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 20c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 55c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 30c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 44c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Lone wallet's 62c entry signaled high-conviction bet on Powell exit, but the market has revalued sharply against that thesis. With dominant side YES yet 100% underwater and zero NO-side tracked positioning, this reads as a stale directional bet rather than active smart money flow. Absence of fresh entries on either side suggests tracked alpha has disengaged — directional signal here is weak.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8152..da | Smart | YES | $1.4K | -43% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,370 on $1.4K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 33c | $286.6K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 44c | — | ✓ matched |