AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 70c |
40%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 70c |
45%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 85c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 94c |
84%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 70c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money established YES at 68c well before the current 94c print, signaling early conviction that SpaceX would clear the June 30 deadline. The absence of any NO positioning combined with a held YES entry implies smart money sees residual upside toward resolution rather than treating 94c as a fade.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | YES | $1.6K | +42% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$750 on $1.6K capital deployed (avg +47.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 95c | $785.1K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 70c | — | ✓ matched |