We tracked 11 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 9 market makers are providing $192K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 62c–90c.
Wallet
Category
Side
Amount
P&L
0xc658..84
MM
NO
$47.1K
+5%
This Market
Entered at 87c → now 92c (+5%), $47.1K on NO
Track Record
1y on platform · 906 trades · geopolitics specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (906) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35
MM
YES
$43.1K
-22%
This Market
Entered at 11c → now 8c (-22%), $43.1K on YES
Track Record
13d on platform · 1954 trades · geopolitics specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1954) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc408..75
MM
NO
$30.5K
+2%
This Market
Entered at 90c → now 92c (+2%), $30.5K on NO
Track Record
1y on platform · 1478 trades · other specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1478) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b
MM
YES
$19.4K
-68%
This Market
Entered at 26c → now 8c (-68%), $19.4K on YES
Track Record
24d on platform · 1246 trades · geopolitics specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1246) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5cd5..33
Retail
NO
$16.5K
+6%
This Market
Entered at 87c → now 92c (+6%), $16.5K on NO
Track Record
12d on platform
AI Insight
Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.
0x0845..6f
MM
NO
$15.0K
+36%
This Market
Entered at 67c → now 92c (+36%), $15.0K on NO
Track Record
21d on platform · 1066 trades · geopolitics specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1066) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x4e25..a7
MM
YES
$14.5K
-71%
This Market
Entered at 29c → now 8c (-71%), $14.5K on YES
Track Record
1mo on platform · 1712 trades · geopolitics specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1712) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x12d6..a8
MM
NO
$12.4K
+48%
This Market
Entered at 62c → now 92c (+48%), $12.4K on NO
Track Record
1mo on platform · 665 trades · geopolitics specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (665) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd48a..90 ★
MM
NO
$8.0K
+10%
★ Tier-1 Wallet
80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets
This Market
Entered at 84c → now 92c (+10%), $8.0K on NO
Track Record
5d on platform · 274 trades · other specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (274) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x253d..07
MM
NO
$1.9K
+29%
This Market
Entered at 71c → now 92c (+29%), $1.9K on NO
Track Record
9mo on platform · 1374 trades · geopolitics specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1374) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
YES wallets entered between 11c–36c, NO wallets at 62c–90c. At current price 8c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0%in profit
NO positions
100%in profit
Polymarket: 8c YES — $6.8M Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 8c with $6.8M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 8c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
What are the current odds for Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30??
As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 8% YES with $6.8M in total volume.
Where can I bet on Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30??
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30??
OddsShift tracks 11 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.