Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction (6 of 7 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: May 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $17.4M

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Q: How did 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 6 of 7 models agreed with STRONG conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

STRONG RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	NO	3c	94%
PIN Model	NO	2c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	15c	70%
Claude Analysis	NO	3c	92%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	4c	88%
Gemini Flash	NO	10c	75%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 6c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

8 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money positioned overwhelmingly on NO at elevated prices (67-97c), signaling high conviction that Kharg Island remains under Iranian control through April 30. The 10:1 profitability skew and willingness of tracked wallets to pay up to 97c for NO indicates informed traders treat this as a near-certain resolution, not a contested outcome.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xc658..84	MM	NO	$44.4K	+8%
This Market Entered at 87c → now 50c (+8%), $44.4K on NO Activity · 2 events · Apr 12 → Apr 13 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 12BUYNO86+$27,594$27,593 Apr 13BUYNO89+$13,541$41,957 Realized— Unrealized+$3,251 Total Profit+$3,251 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1790) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc408..75	MM	NO	$37.7K	+4%
This Market Entered at 90c → now 50c (+4%), $37.7K on NO Activity · 2 events · Apr 09 → Apr 21 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 09BUYNO90+$27,483$27,483 Apr 21BUYNO92+$8,689$36,722 Realized— Unrealized+$1,490 Total Profit+$1,490 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1464) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x162f..8d	Retail	NO	$32.5K	+7%
This Market Entered at 87c → now 50c (+7%), $32.5K on NO Activity · 5 events · Mar 22 → Apr 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 22BUYNO63+$1,958$1,958 Mar 26SELLNO60−$3,699$0 Apr 01BUYNO79+$58$58 Apr 07BUYNO86+$23,708$23,772 Apr 19BUYNO95+$9,507$35,766 Realized−$93 Unrealized+$2,602 Total Profit+$2,509 Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.
0x5cd5..33	Retail	NO	$24.0K	+5%
This Market Entered at 89c → now 50c (+5%), $24.0K on NO Activity · 14 events · Apr 01 → Apr 22 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 01BUYNO83+$3,312$3,312 Apr 02BUYNO82+$1,030$4,313 Apr 06BUYNO84+$1,390$5,808 Apr 07BUYNO85+$1,641$7,548 Apr 08BUYNO92+$1,376$9,507 Apr 13BUYNO90+$2,710$12,008 Apr 14BUYNO90+$3,279$15,319 Apr 15BUYNO95+$624$16,752 Apr 16BUYNO96+$268$17,164 Apr 17BUYNO97+$755$18,167 Apr 19BUYNO96+$2,864$20,713 Apr 20BUYNO94+$1,180$21,481 Apr 21BUYNO92+$1,919$23,084 Apr 22BUYNO94+$457$23,936 Realized— Unrealized+$1,219 Total Profit+$1,219 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1802 trades).
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$14.2K	+31%
This Market Entered at 67c → now 50c (+31%), $14.2K on NO Activity · 12 events · Mar 22 → Apr 22 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 22BUYNO60+$1,200$1,200 Mar 23BUYNO64+$5,370$6,650 Mar 23SELLNO70−$1,869$5,387 Mar 24BUYNO71+$4,093$9,557 Mar 25SELLNO69−$1,179$8,151 Mar 26BUYNO63+$432$7,811 Mar 26SELLNO64−$19$7,969 Mar 27BUYNO66+$913$9,131 Mar 28BUYNO70+$461$10,146 Mar 31SELLNO79−$440$11,010 Apr 10BUYNO92+$996$13,819 Apr 22BUYNO93+$93$14,107 Realized+$292 Unrealized+$4,031 Total Profit+$4,322 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1070) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd48a..90 ★	MM	NO	$7.5K	+12%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 84c → now 50c (+12%), $7.5K on NO Activity · 2 events · Apr 04 → Apr 13 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 04BUYNO82+$5,000$5,000 Apr 13BUYNO90+$1,670$7,187 Realized— Unrealized+$848 Total Profit+$848 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (238) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x12d6..a8	MM	NO	$7.1K	+29%
This Market Entered at 69c → now 50c (+29%), $7.1K on NO Activity · 9 events · Mar 26 → Apr 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 26BUYNO62+$8,437$8,437 Mar 26SELLNO66−$137$8,897 Mar 27SELLNO66−$726$8,170 Apr 19BUYNO92+$997$12,416 Apr 20BUYNO92+$493$12,865 Apr 21BUYNO92+$1,359$14,210 Apr 21SELLNO91−$8,508$5,555 Apr 22BUYNO93+$945$6,637 Apr 23BUYNO95+$440$7,184 Realized+$2,225 Unrealized+$1,882 Total Profit+$4,107 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1328) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xa52b..80 ★	MM	NO	$6.0K	-3%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 97c → now 50c (-3%), $6.0K on NO Activity · 1 event · Apr 16 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 16BUYNO97+$6,129$6,129 Realized— Unrealized−$179 Total Profit−$179 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1276) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$2.8K	-58%
This Market Entered at 10c → now 50c (-58%), $2.8K on YES Activity · 14 events · Mar 22 → Apr 22 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 22BUYYES41+$24$24 Mar 23BUYYES37+$30$51 Mar 24BUYYES32+$1,392$1,436 Mar 25BUYYES35+$481$2,050 Mar 30BUYYES31+$87$1,917 Apr 02BUYYES19+$48$1,223 Apr 08BUYYES6+$910$1,296 Apr 09BUYYES8+$118$1,846 Apr 10BUYYES8+$1,601$3,447 Apr 17BUYYES4+$48$1,828 Apr 17SELLYES3−$21$1,307 Apr 20BUYYES7+$90$2,956 Apr 21BUYYES8+$131$3,770 Apr 22BUYYES4+$78$2,173 Realized−$54 Unrealized−$2,142 Total Profit−$2,195 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1902) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x6828..56	Retail	NO	$1.7K	+6%
This Market Entered at 89c → now 50c (+6%), $1.7K on NO Activity · 3 events · Mar 24 → Apr 17 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 24BUYNO69+$138$138 Mar 26BUYNO68+$204$340 Apr 17BUYNO96+$1,275$1,756 Realized— Unrealized+$102 Total Profit+$102 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1324 trades).
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$1.1K	-103%
This Market Entered at 26c → now 50c (-103%), $1.1K on YES Activity · 6 events · Mar 22 → Apr 04 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 22BUYYES39+$1,263$1,263 Mar 22SELLYES38−$618$613 Mar 30BUYYES32+$1,671$2,188 Apr 02BUYYES22+$1,099$2,605 Apr 03BUYYES20+$1,506$3,874 Apr 04SELLYES19−$2$3,679 Realized−$17 Unrealized−$3,976 Total Profit−$3,992 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1384) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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98% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$26,298 on $179.1K capital deployed (avg +14.7%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

98% in profit

YES positions

2% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	6c	$17.4M	0c
AI Consensus	6c	—	✓ matched

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