Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 14% YES on Polymarket with $879K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?'?

OddsShift tracks 4 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

86c

YES

14c

Prediction markets give a 14% probability to: kharg island no longer under iranian control by may 31?.

Currently at 14%

Traded on Polymarket — $879K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 14c YES with $879K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

Smart money signal: 4 tracked wallets positioned NO. Backed by $879K in trading volume.

PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

STRONG OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 85c

Smart money entered NO at 73c–84c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

4 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 4 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 4 market makers are providing $36K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 73c–84c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xc408..75	MM	NO	$16.4K	+5%
This Market Entered at 81c → now 86c (+5%), $16.4K on NO Track Record 1y on platform · 1478 trades · other specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1478) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5cd5..33	MM	NO	$12.8K	+18%
This Market Entered at 73c → now 86c (+18%), $12.8K on NO Track Record 30d on platform · 1830 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1830) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$4.7K	+14%
This Market Entered at 75c → now 86c (+14%), $4.7K on NO Track Record 13d on platform · 1954 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1954) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd48a..90 ★	MM	NO	$2.1K	+1%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 84c → now 86c (+1%), $2.1K on NO Track Record 5d on platform · 274 trades · other specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (274) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 73c–84c. At current price 14c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 14c YES — $879K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 14c with $879K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 14c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	14c	$879K
Our Model	14c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 14% YES with $879K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31??

OddsShift tracks 4 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.