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Resolved: Jun 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $11.2M

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Resolved · JUN 01
NO
100c
YES
0c
Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 5 of 6 models agreed with STRONG conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.
STRONG RESULT
NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

DIRECTION MATCHED
54c
95c
100c
100c
Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model Said Fair Value estimated fair price of YES Confidence Result
Bayesian Update NO 3c
94%
PIN Model NO 2c
96%
Compound Signal NO 15c
70%
DeepSeek Quant NO 3c
85%
Gemini Flash NO 8c
75%
Kimi Macro NO 5c
95%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 6c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

8 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 9 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 8 market makers are providing $66K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 84c–96c.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0x5cd5..33 RetailNO$55.7K+9%
0xbacd..35 +86%MMNO$46.0K+1%
0x12d6..a8MMNO$5.6K+9%
0xcaab..ddMMNO$3.9K-2%
0x0845..6fMMNO$3.4K+3%
0xc021..a8 MMNO$2.8K+6%
0xd48a..90MMNO$2.0K+12%
0xc408..75MMNO$1.7K+4%
0xa8af..5eMMNO$1.1K+8%
See all 87 tracked wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked NO Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$14,232 on $122.1K capital deployed (avg +11.7%).

NO positions
100% in profit
YES positions
0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform Last YES Price Volume Final
Polymarket 5c $11.2M 0c
AI Consensus 6c ✓ matched