AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 35c |
30%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 22c |
62%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 18c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 40c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 35c |
55%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 24c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 25c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet positioned NO at 75c, indicating high conviction that Real Madrid would not win on this date. With price now at 24c YES (76c NO), smart money is validated and positioning aligns with the dominant NO consensus — no contrarian YES accumulation visible.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x204f..14 | Smart | NO | $1.8K | +1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$588 on $1.8K capital deployed (avg +33.3%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 24c | $2.0M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 25c | — | ✓ matched |