Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES). HOUSTON, April 23 (Reuters) - Crude futures climbed more than $1 a barrel on Thursday as the conflict between ​the U.S.

What’s Happening

The probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 remains low at 18%, as shipping data shows only a marginal uptick in vessel crossings despite diplomatic overtures. According to maritime security consultancy Windward, traffic has picked up slightly with more outbound vessels, but activity remains a fraction of pre-conflict levels. TankerTrackers.com estimates that $380 million worth of crude is currently in U.S. custody and en route to the United States, while another $1 billion in oil has been returned to Iran aboard tankers turned around by the blockade. The U.S. Treasury has supported the campaign by placing sanctions on at least one vessel, the LPG carrier LPG Sevan. However, the overall volume of ships transiting the strait—which carried about 20% of daily global oil supplies before the war began on February 28—remains deeply suppressed, making a full normalization by mid-May appear unlikely. [Maritime Executive, Apr 27]

Recent shipping data from April 27 confirms that only seven ships—mainly dry bulk vessels—crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, in line with muted activity seen in recent days, according to ship tracking data from Kpler and satellite analysis from SynMax. The vessels included ships leaving from Iraqi ports and one dry bulk vessel from an Iranian port. Talks between Iran and the United States have stalled, with no deal in sight to resolve the dueling blockades that have paralyzed a significant portion of global energy transit. The persistent low traffic underscores the fragility of the situation, as even a modest increase in crossings does not signal a return to normal operations. The lack of progress in negotiations directly impacts the likelihood of the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15, as diplomatic channels remain deadlocked. [Reuters, Apr 27]

Despite Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for deferring nuclear negotiations with the United States, oil prices continue to climb, with Brent crude rising 3% on April 28. Iran’s threats against commercial shipping have reduced maritime traffic in the strait to a trickle over the past two months, paralyzing a key chokepoint for global energy supplies. The offer from Tehran has not yet translated into tangible action, as U.S. and Iranian forces continue to restrict transit. Meanwhile, crude futures jumped more than $1 a barrel on April 23 after President Trump intensified threats regarding the strait, despite extending a ceasefire following a request by Pakistani mediators. The combination of stalled talks, ongoing blockades, and rising oil prices suggests that the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 faces significant headwinds, with the current probability reflecting the deep uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical standoff. [Al Jazeera, Apr 28]

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