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Resolved: May 19, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $17.9M

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Resolved · MAY 19
NO
100c
YES
0c
Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 8 of 8 models agreed with STRONG conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.
STRONG RESULT
NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 8 of 8 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

DIRECTION MATCHED
49c
95c
100c
100c
Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 7 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model Said Fair Value estimated fair price of YES Confidence Result
Bayesian Update NO 3c
94%
PIN Model NO 2c
96%
Compound Signal NO 14c
72%
Claude Analysis NO 5c
88%
DeepSeek Quant NO 4c
82%
Grok Contrarian YES 18c
60%
Gemini Flash NO 7c
75%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 8c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

10 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is decisively positioned NO: tracked wallets paid 85-98c expecting traffic disruption to persist past May 15, and the deep-discount YES entries (4-9c) read as cheap optionality rather than conviction. The 12-wallet skew plus dominant NO side signals informed capital does not expect Hormuz normalization within the window.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0x0c0e..4eMMNO$141.3K+4%
0x96b5..e7RetailNO$64.2K-4%
0x2e0b..70MMNO$57.1K-1%
0xa52b..80MMNO$56.7K-2%
0xd48a..90RetailNO$8.6K+11%
0x44c1..c1 +52%MMYES$3.1K-18%
0x162f..8dMMYES$2.2K-59%
0x24c8..e1MMNO$2.1K+4%
0x0aae..1cMMNO$1.9K-1%
0x7c3d..6bMMYES$1.8K+62%
0x5cd5..33 ★MMNO$1.6K-2%
0x0845..6fMMNO$1.3K—
See all 89 tracked wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

98% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$16,068 on $341.8K capital deployed (avg +4.7%).

NO positions
98% in profit
YES positions
2% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform Last YES Price Volume Final
Polymarket 6c $17.9M 0c
AI Consensus 8c — ✓ matched