Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 14% YES on Polymarket with $189K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

86c

YES

14c

Prediction markets give a 14% probability to: strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by may 15?.

Down from 18% to 14% since 2026-04-23 (-4pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $189K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 14c YES with $189K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Last updated: April 24, 2026, 12:53 UTC

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

PRO Analysis

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STRONG OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 85c

Smart money entered NO at 85c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 85c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xd48a..90 ★	MM	NO	$7.8K	+0%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 85c → now 86c (+0%), $7.8K on NO Activity · 1 event · Apr 24 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 24BUYNO85+$7,777$7,777 Realized— Unrealized+$36 Total Profit+$36 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (222) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 85c. At current price 14c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 40 Cents

Significant 40-cent gap: Polymarket at 14c vs Kalshi at 54c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 14c.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	14c	$189K
Kalshi	54c	—
Our Model	14c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 14% YES with $189K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15??

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.