AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 39c |
22%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 30c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 20c |
75%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 45c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 32c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 28c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
One tracked wallet positioned NO at 68c, aligned with the dominant side and current market pricing (NO ~68c). Thin sample size limits signal strength, but the entry sits at-market rather than chasing, suggesting passive conviction in Real Oviedo not winning rather than aggressive directional bet.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x204f..14 +100% | Smart | NO | $4.7K | +0% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$2,194 on $4.7K capital deployed (avg +47.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 32c | $540.9K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 28c | — | ✓ matched |