Ledger IPO before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 11%: Ledger IPO before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (11% YES). As SpaceX IPO nears, traders think it's a near-certainty Musk becomes the first trillionaire | Forex Factory.

What’s Happening

The Ledger IPO question sits at 11% YES against a backdrop of an IPO market suddenly unfrozen by SpaceX's record-shattering debut. SpaceX priced at $135 per share on June 11, 2026, raising $75 billion at a valuation near $1.75 trillion — the largest IPO in market history. Retail orders alone exceeded $100 billion ahead of pricing, with BlackRock committing at least $5 billion, per Bloomberg reporting. The deal reopens a window that had been effectively closed to large tech listings since the 2022 rate-cycle freeze, when global IPO proceeds fell 61% year-over-year. [Business Insider, Jun 11]

Ledger, the Paris-based hardware wallet maker last valued at $1.4 billion in its 2023 Series C, has not filed an S-1 or F-1, and CEO Pascal Gauthier has publicly framed a listing as a multi-year horizon rather than a 2026 event. The regulatory backdrop also tightened this week, with Senator Elizabeth Warren sending a 12-page letter to SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins on June 10 requesting delays to blockbuster listings over governance and valuation concerns. For a crypto-infrastructure issuer, that scrutiny compounds existing MiCA compliance overhead in the EU and ongoing SEC ambiguity on custody classification stateside — a structural drag on any near-term ledger ipo timeline. [Forbes, Jun 10]

Historical base rates support the 89% NO pricing. Of the 20 private companies valued above $1 billion profiled in Forbes' 2026 IPO pipeline, only a handful have filed confidential paperwork, and median time from S-1 filing to first trade has run 120-180 days per Bloomberg league tables — leaving roughly 200 calendar days until year-end 2026 for any non-filer to complete the process. Comparable hardware-and-software crypto issuers Circle and Kraken are further along the listing track, and bankers typically sequence sector debuts to avoid pricing collisions. Absent a confidential filing disclosure before the Q3 earnings window, a ledger ipo within the contract's resolution period remains a low-probability outcome. [Forbes, Jun 12]

Traded on Polymarket — $511K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 11c YES with $511K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.