As of November 8, 2026, Polymarket prices “Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by December 31, 2026?” at 12% YES with $60K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES). 2 of 4| Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks during a news conference, Saturday, Oct.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted the G20 Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Atlanta on October 30–31, 2026, where the gathering concluded without consensus among participating ministers, according to the Associated Press. Rubio held a press availability at the Loews Atlanta on October 31, and the State Department said no personnel announcement was scheduled. The session marked a high-profile diplomatic engagement for Rubio, who has served as the 72nd secretary of state since 2025 after representing Florida in the Senate from 2011 to 2025. [AP, Oct 31]
The G20 meeting followed internal scrutiny at the State Department. On November 7, 2026, Rubio warned top staff against conflicts of interest, a meeting that came after the high-profile resignation of US Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle amid reports she sold access to Trump administration officials, The Jerusalem Post reported. The crackdown signals management turbulence inside the department even as Rubio maintains a visible public schedule. Questions about whether Marco Rubio stays out as secretary of state through the end of 2026 therefore hinge less on any announced departure than on how the administration handles ethics and staffing controversies. [Jpost, Nov 07]
No official notice of a change at the State Department has been issued, and Rubio continues to hold the post heading into the final weeks of the year. The State Department's readout of the Atlanta trip described the G20 meeting as advancing practical cooperation on economic and security challenges under President Trump's leadership. For now, the record shows a sitting secretary managing a contentious multilateral agenda and an internal ethics review, with the next scheduled appearances and any personnel decisions the key markers to watch on whether Marco Rubio is out as secretary of state by December 31, 2026. [State, Nov 01]
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