Prediction markets put the probability at 38%: Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31. Currently, markets are divided (38% YES, 62% NO).
Iran's new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public since the February 28 Israeli air strike that wounded him and killed his father and predecessor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with Mojtaba's wife, Zahra Haddad-Adel. Multiday funeral ceremonies for the slain leader moved through Tehran and toward Iraq in early July, drawing tens of thousands of mourners and senior officials, yet the question of whether Mojtaba Khamenei will be seen in public by December 31 remained unresolved as his image appeared only on posters across the capital. He was absent even from the July 1 funeral of his own wife, killed in the same strike. [Al Jazeera, Jul 06]
The absence has driven speculation about the successor's location and security. According to reporting cited by The New York Times, Iranian security officials rejected Mojtaba's request to perform burial rites for his father, fearing that Israel could kill the new leader or track surveillance back to his hiding place. His brothers Masoud, Mostafa and Meysam Khamenei were seen weeping publicly at the ceremonies, sharpening the contrast with the successor's continued invisibility. That whether Mojtaba Khamenei is seen in public by December 31 has become a live question reflects deepening uncertainty over the leadership's stability months after the war's opening strike. [Times of Israel, Jul 04]
Analysts note that Mojtaba's absence has fueled conservative infighting and public insecurity, with residents in Tehran describing his no-show as more striking than the presence of the officials who did attend. He has not been seen or heard in person since taking over, and no timeline for a first public appearance has been announced. Whether Mojtaba Khamenei is seen in public by December 31 now hinges on Iran's assessment of the ongoing security threat and any move to consolidate the succession openly. [Newsweek, Jul 06]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($60K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 38c YES.
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