Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?
NO
74c
YES
26c
As of October 21, 2026, Polymarket prices “Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?” at 26% YES with $54K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 26% probability to: next us-iran senior diplomatic meeting by november 30, 2026?.
On this market: 5/7 models independently agree NO — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis
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5 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (65–98c vs 74c). Gemini Flash leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 81c — market prices it at 74c. 7-point gap supports NO.
Why One Model Disagrees: Grok Contrarian dissents at 42c — Market consensus at 26% YES and math models at 18% heavily price in continued deadlock and informed NO flow, yet ignore fat-tail catalyst...
1 Active Wallets on This Market
The lone tracked wallet is positioned entirely on NO at 61c, signaling conviction that no senior US-Iran diplomatic meeting occurs by November 30, 2026. With no YES entries recorded, smart-money flow is one-sided toward NO, suggesting the market direction favors a continued decline in YES pricing.
The single tracked wallet holds a NO position entered at 61c, now profitable as YES trades at 26c, implying NO is marked near 74c. With 0% of YES in profit and 100% of NO in profit, the profitable side has no incentive to exit, reinforcing downward pressure on YES. Price support for YES is weak given no profitable YES holders to defend the level.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0%in profit
NO positions
100%in profit
Polymarket: 26c YES — $54K Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 26c with $54K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 19c. 7-point gap suggests market may undervalue NO.
What are the current odds for Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?
As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 26% YES with $54K in total volume.
Where can I bet on Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 19c YES. 5 models agree on direction.
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