Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction (5 of 6 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Jul 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $1.7M

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Q: How did 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jul 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUL 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 5 of 6 models agreed with STRONG conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

STRONG RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

7 of 7 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	NO	4c	92%
PIN Model	NO	2c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	16c	68%
Claude Analysis	NO	5c	82%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	5c	85%
Gemini Flash	NO	15c	70%
Kimi Macro	NO	8c	92%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 8c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is unanimously short the ceasefire, with all three tracked wallets sitting on NO at 90c+ averages and zero conviction buyers stepping in at 8c. The one-sided positioning signals high confidence that the deadline expires without a deal — the remaining 8c reflects tail risk, not genuine smart-money disagreement.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x5cd5..33 ★	MM	NO	$21.2K	+2%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 92c → now 50c (+2%), $21.2K on NO Activity · 9 events · May 13 → Jun 04 DatePositionAmountTotal May 13BUYNO90+$400$400 May 16BUYNO89+$6,060$6,455 May 20BUYNO88+$285$6,668 May 23BUYNO89+$693$7,437 May 29BUYNO91+$758$8,362 May 30BUYNO93+$74$8,620 May 31BUYNO93+$707$9,327 Jun 02BUYNO95+$11,400$20,928 Jun 04BUYNO90+$361$20,187 Realized— Unrealized+$436 Total Profit+$436 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1838) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xa52b..80	MM	NO	$13.5K	+2%
This Market Entered at 93c → now 50c (+2%), $13.5K on NO Activity · 4 events · May 30 → Jun 15 DatePositionAmountTotal May 30BUYNO92+$4,906$4,906 Jun 01BUYNO94+$22,480$27,476 Jun 13SELLNO96−$12,149$16,154 Jun 15SELLNO95−$2,369$13,602 Realized+$444 Unrealized+$148 Total Profit+$592 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1324) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc021..a8 ★	MM	NO	$10.0K	+5%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 90c → now 50c (+5%), $10.0K on NO Activity · 3 events · May 20 → May 28 DatePositionAmountTotal May 20BUYNO87+$1,879$1,879 May 25BUYNO91+$5,460$7,425 May 28BUYNO91+$2,220$9,645 Realized— Unrealized+$447 Total Profit+$447 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1204) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked NO Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$3,774 on $44.6K capital deployed (avg +8.5%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

100% in profit

YES positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	6c	$1.7M	0c
AI Consensus	8c	—	✓ matched

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