Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?'?

As of October 2026, prediction markets price this at 49% YES on Polymarket with $56K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

51c

YES

49c

As of October 20, 2026, Polymarket prices “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?” at 49% YES with $56K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.

Prediction markets give a 49% probability to: russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by may 31, 2027?.

Currently at 49%

Traded on Polymarket — $56K Volume

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OddsShift analysis: up to 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets on every market with smart-money data. Verdict track record published on the accuracy page.

PRO Analysis

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MODERATE AI VERDICT

BUY YES 49c

Smart money entered YES at 47c. 100% of YES wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 47c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xd5cc..a4	MM	YES	$4.4K	+4%
This Market Entered at 47c → now 49c (+4%), $4.4K on YES Activity · 1 event · Oct 20 DatePositionAmountTotal Oct 20BUYYES47+$4,188$4,189 Realized— Unrealized+$187 Total Profit+$187 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1310) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 47c. At current price 49c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 49c YES — $56K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 49c with $56K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 49c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	49c	$56K
Our Model	49c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?

As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 49% YES with $56K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.