AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 9c |
82%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 5c |
90%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 30c |
40%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 11c |
72%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 10c |
78%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 12c |
68%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 10c |
90%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 10c |
78%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 12c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Both tracked wallets are positioned exclusively on NO at 45c-56c, signaling conviction that the pipeline will not restart by September 30. Their entries imply they viewed the market as underpricing the NO outcome even when YES was priced near 50%, and the subsequent drift to 16c has validated that read. With no YES entries from these wallets, smart money offers no counterweight to the bearish thesis.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $4.9K | +73% | |
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $1.0K | +34% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$6,830 on $5.9K capital deployed (avg +115.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 16c | $1.0M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 12c | — | ✓ matched |