Oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has already returned to pre-war levels, yet markets still price sustained H2 disruption risk.
Oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered sharply following the 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict, though total vessel traffic remains below pre-war norms — the core tension behind whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30. Vice President JD Vance said on June 30 that oil throughput had returned to, and sometimes exceeded, pre-war levels after a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding pushed Tehran to reopen the waterway. Vance acknowledged that the number of transiting ships is still down from before the war, attributing the gap mainly to reduced cargo and non-tanker vessels rather than crude carriers. [NY Post, Jun 30]
The shipping industry is repositioning ahead of a fuller reopening, even as the strait remains only partially navigable and politically contested. Ship-tracking data and firming tanker freight rates show owners and charterers moving early to serve Gulf exports, according to reporting on June 30. Confidence has been reinforced by U.S. naval forces, which began escorting and protecting supertanker transits along the Omani corridor, per reporting on July 2, amid a fragile ceasefire and persistent naval blockade risks. Analysts still warn the gap between market expectation and on-water reality is wide, describing the system as caught in a fragile middle ground. [Marine News, Jun 30]
Whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30 hinges on the durability of the ceasefire and the pace of tanker recovery. FGE NexantECA chairman emeritus Fereidun Fesharaki told CNBC on July 6 that up to 75% of previous oil flows are expected to return by year-end, while cautioning that U.S.-Iran tensions are unlikely to be resolved for good soon. Commentary on July 5 noted traffic picking up on some days but still well below pre-crisis norms and prone to sudden reversals, keeping the normalization timeline uncertain heading into H2 2026. [Oil & Gas 360, Jul 6]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($70K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 38c YES.
Smart money entered NO at 51c–55c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.
We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 51c–55c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $8.8K | +21% | |
| 0xeec5..fe | Retail | NO | $1.0K | +13% |
NO wallets entered at 51c–55c. At current price 38c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.
Significant 16-cent gap: Polymarket at 38c vs Kalshi at 54c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 38c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 38c | $70K |
| Kalshi | 54c | — |
| Our Model | 38c | — |