Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 5 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Oct 06, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $12.3M

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Q: How did 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Oct 06, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · OCT 06

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 5 of 5 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	3c	94%
Compound Signal	NO	27c	46%
Claude Analysis	NO	9c	82%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	12c	78%
Grok Contrarian	NO	22c	61%
Gemini Flash	NO	12c	85%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 14c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

6 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is decisively positioned on NO, with every tracked NO wallet profitable and entries spanning a wide 55c-89c band that signals sustained, repeated conviction rather than a single opportunistic bet. The YES side looks like cheap lottery-ticket speculation at sub-11c, not informed accumulation. The tracked flow points to Hormuz traffic NOT normalizing by September 30 — the durable edge remains status-quo NO.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xa52b..80	MM	NO	$94.0K	+6%
This Market Entered at 89c → now 50c (+6%), $94.0K on NO Activity · 4 events · Aug 09 → Aug 18 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 09BUYNO78+$2,340$2,340 Aug 16BUYNO88+$18,920$21,560 Aug 17BUYNO90+$25,650$47,700 Aug 18BUYNO90+$41,850$89,550 Realized— Unrealized+$5,268 Total Profit+$5,268 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1326) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0c0e..4e	MM	NO	$77.1K	+8%
This Market Entered at 87c → now 50c (+8%), $77.1K on NO Activity · 8 events · Jul 04 → Aug 27 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 04BUYNO45+$18$18 Jul 06BUYNO55+$624$646 Jul 08BUYNO68+$555$1,354 Jul 31BUYNO82+$8,216$9,849 Aug 12BUYNO85+$20,949$31,158 Aug 16BUYNO89+$24,897$57,521 Aug 26BUYNO88+$6,108$62,982 Aug 27BUYNO93+$9,300$75,861 Realized— Unrealized+$6,418 Total Profit+$6,418 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (654) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x47ab..df	MM	NO	$30.8K	+6%
This Market Entered at 89c → now 50c (+6%), $30.8K on NO Activity · 6 events · Aug 15 → Aug 27 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 15BUYNO86+$5,160$5,160 Aug 17BUYNO89+$3,560$8,900 Aug 18BUYNO90+$303$9,303 Aug 25BUYNO88+$8,750$17,794 Aug 26BUYNO90+$10,251$28,582 Aug 27BUYNO93+$854$30,343 Realized— Unrealized+$1,954 Total Profit+$1,954 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1206) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x2e0b..70	MM	NO	$24.5K	+7%
This Market Entered at 88c → now 50c (+7%), $24.5K on NO Activity · 2 events · Jul 13 → Aug 17 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 13BUYNO71+$641$641 Aug 17BUYNO89+$22,248$23,051 Realized— Unrealized+$1,587 Total Profit+$1,587 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1710) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$8.1K	+33%
This Market Entered at 68c → now 50c (+33%), $8.1K on NO Activity · 23 events · Jul 04 → Aug 26 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 04BUYNO44+$1,094$1,094 Jul 05BUYNO52+$5,397$6,700 Jul 06BUYNO54+$701$7,666 Jul 07BUYNO64+$897$9,976 Jul 09BUYNO69+$746$11,501 Jul 11BUYNO64+$937$11,536 Jul 16BUYNO75+$830$14,435 Jul 19SELLNO80−$2,162$13,236 Jul 20BUYNO76+$3,892$16,473 Jul 21BUYNO76+$2,713$19,116 Jul 25BUYNO77+$250$19,690 Jul 26BUYNO73+$80$18,747 Jul 27BUYNO74+$16$19,020 Jul 28SELLNO74−$5,180$13,840 Aug 02BUYNO76+$380$14,594 Aug 02SELLNO78−$4,566$10,413 Aug 03SELLNO77−$6,145$4,134 Aug 07SELLNO73−$1,490$2,429 Aug 15SELLNO86−$860$2,001 Aug 16BUYNO88+$361$2,409 Aug 17BUYNO89+$4,450$6,886 Aug 24SELLNO94−$1,525$5,748 Aug 26BUYNO89+$2,225$7,668 Realized+$4,143 Unrealized+$2,298 Total Profit+$6,441 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1244) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x162f..8d	MM	YES	$2.3K	-50%
This Market Entered at 11c → now 50c (-50%), $2.3K on YES Activity · 1 event · Aug 17 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 17BUYYES11+$4,528$4,528 Realized— Unrealized−$2,264 Total Profit−$2,264 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1076) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xeec5..fe	Retail	NO	$1.6K	+72%
This Market Entered at 55c → now 50c (+72%), $1.6K on NO Activity · 1 event · Jul 06 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 06BUYNO55+$916$916 Realized— Unrealized+$658 Total Profit+$658 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1496 trades).
0x22db..0f	Retail	NO	$1.4K	+24%
This Market Entered at 74c → now 50c (+24%), $1.4K on NO Activity · 6 events · Aug 02 → Aug 13 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 02BUYNO77+$231$231 Aug 04BUYNO67+$134$335 Aug 05BUYNO71+$71$426 Aug 07BUYNO73+$440$880 Aug 08BUYNO77+$154$1,078 Aug 13BUYNO85+$85$1,275 Realized— Unrealized+$302 Total Profit+$302 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1708 trades).

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100% of Tracked NO Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$33,870 on $239.8K capital deployed (avg +14.1%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

99% in profit

YES positions

1% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	6c	$12.3M	0c
AI Consensus	14c	—	✓ matched

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