AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 76c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 78c |
55%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 42c |
31%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 85c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 85c |
72%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 77c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet holds a uniform YES entry at 53c, indicating a deliberate, early accumulation at a discount. This positioning signals high confidence in the Liberals winning seats, as the trader committed capital well below the current market price, likely anticipating further upward movement or a favorable resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | YES | $1.1K | +32% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$974 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg +87.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 78c | $249.2K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 77c | — | ✓ matched |