As of November 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?” at 30% YES with $261K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Prediction markets put the probability at 30%: Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (30% YES).
Iranian authorities imposed a total internet blackout in Iran on January 8, 2026, severing nationwide access to the global internet and restricting domestic services including the National Information Network, phone and text messaging, and satellite connectivity, according to the Middle East Forum. The shutdown followed protests that erupted on December 28, 2025 and spread to all 31 provinces. Human Rights Watch reported that the communications cutoff accompanied an intensified lethal crackdown, with credible reports of large-scale killings by security forces. [Middle East Forum, Jun 01]
The blackout has drawn international condemnation and complicated verification of casualty figures. Amnesty International's Security Lab said the telecommunications shutdown, imposed as protests intensified, obscured documentation of unlawful use of force, firearms, and mass arbitrary arrests, with at least 28 protesters killed between December 31, 2025 and January 3, 2026. On January 23, 2026, the UN Human Rights Council adopted a resolution extending the mandates of the Fact-Finding Mission and Special Rapporteur on Iran and calling for an urgent investigation, noting authorities reported over 3,000 deaths including security forces while civil society estimates reached into the tens of thousands—unverifiable due to the shutdown. [Amnesty, Jan 09]
RAND analysts described the unrest as the most serious challenge in decades to Iran's clerical leadership, noting the near-total internet and international telephone blackout with only limited satellite connectivity reportedly restored. The episode marks a qualitative shift from the selective, temporary shutdowns used since 2009 to a nationwide severing of access. Whether a repeat total internet blackout in Iran occurs before December 31, 2026 will hinge on the trajectory of protest activity and the leadership's willingness to reimpose nationwide communications cuts as a containment tool. [RAND, Jan 14]
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