Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (6 of 7 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: May 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $13.1M

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

Q: How did 'Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 6 of 7 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 7 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	4c	92%
Compound Signal	NO	28c	44%
Claude Analysis	NO	7c	82%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	8c	82%
Grok Contrarian	YES	18c	60%
Gemini Flash	NO	18c	70%
Kimi Macro	NO	84c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 24c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

7 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money positioning is unambiguously bearish: 8 tracked wallets stacked NO across a wide 41-60c band, signaling sustained conviction rather than a single tactical entry. YES entries as high as 39c now looking like trapped longs reinforces that tracked wallets read the 'end of operations by April 30' deadline as structurally unlikely to hit.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$41.9K	+35%
This Market Entered at 60c → now 50c (+35%), $41.9K on NO Activity · 15 events · Mar 22 → Apr 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 22BUYNO50+$4,211$4,211 Mar 23BUYNO42+$548$4,061 Mar 24BUYNO44+$1,278$5,551 Mar 29BUYNO54+$1,200$8,031 Apr 01BUYNO45+$2,044$8,671 Apr 04BUYNO66+$571$13,416 Apr 06BUYNO68+$755$14,578 Apr 07BUYNO47+$2,737$12,757 Apr 09BUYNO59+$1,311$17,414 Apr 10BUYNO57+$29$16,853 Apr 11BUYNO57+$2,209$19,044 Apr 13BUYNO67+$362$22,618 Apr 14BUYNO48+$40$16,356 Apr 22BUYNO83+$5,436$33,718 Apr 23BUYNO90+$4,693$41,296 Realized— Unrealized+$14,511 Total Profit+$14,511 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1902) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	NO	$19.0K	+45%
This Market Entered at 52c → now 50c (+45%), $19.0K on NO Activity · 10 events · Mar 31 → Apr 24 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 31BUYNO46+$2,851$2,851 Apr 01BUYNO46+$1,184$4,049 Apr 02BUYNO46+$1,330$5,341 Apr 06BUYNO66+$1,020$8,755 Apr 16BUYNO52+$1,773$8,670 Apr 18BUYNO49+$211$8,381 Apr 19BUYNO61+$652$11,086 Apr 20BUYNO64+$1,674$13,374 Apr 20SELLNO69−$223$14,112 Apr 24BUYNO89+$253$18,454 Realized+$57 Unrealized+$8,193 Total Profit+$8,249 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1684) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5188..04	MM	NO	$16.4K	+58%
This Market Entered at 59c → now 50c (+58%), $16.4K on NO Activity · 6 events · Mar 26 → Apr 20 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 26BUYNO41+$119$119 Apr 16BUYNO54+$2,125$2,281 Apr 17BUYNO42+$1,826$3,598 Apr 18SELLNO61−$4,977$254 Apr 19BUYNO60+$2,395$2,644 Apr 20BUYNO66+$8,968$11,883 Realized+$1,105 Unrealized+$5,825 Total Profit+$6,930 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1588) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	MM	YES	$12.5K	-67%
This Market Entered at 39c → now 50c (-67%), $12.5K on YES Activity · 10 events · Mar 20 → Apr 22 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 20BUYYES48+$3,542$3,542 Mar 31BUYYES57+$5,394$9,633 Apr 09BUYYES43+$52,409$59,703 Apr 09SELLYES52−$11,317$60,075 Apr 10SELLYES43−$6,353$43,561 Apr 13BUYYES34+$3,191$37,995 Apr 14BUYYES51+$160$56,159 Apr 16BUYYES35+$1,683$40,407 Apr 17BUYYES56+$879$65,497 Apr 22BUYYES17+$4,998$24,692 Realized+$1,376 Unrealized−$45,366 Total Profit−$43,991 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (643) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	NO	$8.1K	+109%
This Market Entered at 42c → now 50c (+109%), $8.1K on NO Activity · 5 events · Mar 15 → Mar 20 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 15BUYNO39+$1,950$1,950 Mar 16SELLNO53−$16$2,634 Mar 17BUYNO45+$1,402$3,638 Mar 20BUYNO46+$348$4,045 Mar 20SELLNO46−$19$4,018 Realized+$6 Unrealized+$4,385 Total Profit+$4,391 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1396) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xe25b..1b	Retail	NO	$3.2K	+50%
This Market Entered at 58c → now 50c (+50%), $3.2K on NO Activity · 2 events · Apr 12 → Apr 13 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 12BUYNO58+$2,980$2,980 Apr 13SELLNO77−$1,231$2,725 Realized+$304 Unrealized+$1,186 Total Profit+$1,489 Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.
0x12d6..a8	MM	YES	$2.7K	-22%
This Market Entered at 11c → now 50c (-22%), $2.7K on YES Activity · 5 events · Apr 21 → Apr 24 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 21BUYYES35+$1,380$1,380 Apr 21SELLYES36−$957$446 Apr 23BUYYES8+$286$385 Apr 24BUYYES9+$3,190$3,607 Apr 24SELLYES9−$879$2,908 Realized−$14 Unrealized−$774 Total Profit−$788 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1338) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x6bab..92	MM	NO	$1.6K	+123%
This Market Entered at 41c → now 50c (+123%), $1.6K on NO Activity · 1 event · Apr 01 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 01BUYNO41+$700$700 Realized— Unrealized+$862 Total Profit+$862 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1726) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

86% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$57,703 on $105.4K capital deployed (avg +54.7%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

86% in profit

YES positions

14% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	8c	$13.1M	0c
AI Consensus	24c	—	✓ matched

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